Uncertainty Analysis Of Value For Money For The Transportation Infrastructure Projects Of Public And Private Partnership

During recent years,private sectors are encouraged to take an active part in franchising of urban infrastructure investments and operations,promoting the rapid development of PPP in areas such as infrastructure and public service.The Ministry of Finance,the National Development and Reform Commission have explicitly put forward to use Value for Money(VFM)method for reference to select projects planning to adopt PPP mode.And the results of Value for Money should serve as the important basis of project decision-making.Value for money assessment of infrastructure PPP projects is based on research of construction costs,operating costs,risk sharing,capital value and other prediction of variables.Due to various reasons,these variables has great uncertainty and are often difficult to predict,leading to greater uncertainty of evaluation results.In this dissertation,based on the main bottlenecks of VFM application in China and the uncertainties for transportation infrastructure PPP projects,a DCF model was established for VFM of infrastructure PPP projects.Then,the Monte Carlo Simulation model was established on the basis of uncertainty factors for VFM.Crystal Ball software was used to perform the Monte Carlo Simulation analysis of uncertainty.Single points under deterministic conditions were converted to expectation values under uncertain conditions.Repeating the simulation process to arrive at a series of results and analyzing to come to the evaluation conclusion.Comprehensive influence of all the uncertainty factors to the evaluation values were obtained and key uncertainty factors to accuracy of VFM were summarized by means of ordination and classification.Finally,through the analysis of Huai'an trams project and Quanzhou Beifeng express routes projects,coping strategies of uncertainties for VFM,policy recommendations for perfecting VFM were put forward.Findings of the research may propel the establishment of a complete VFM evaluation system.Key instructional functions of VFM during the process of decision-making can be brought into full play and PPP may develop orderly.