The Impact Of Financial Crisis On The Duration Of China's Export Trade

In recent years,countries around the world have been discussing the speed of China's development.This has also created a proper term,“the Speed of China,” although “the Speed of China” is a description of all aspects of China's development,economic development,one of the most representative indicators of comprehensive strength,is still the focus all countries.China's economic development has achieved one after another miracle that has attracted worldwide attention.This is due to the reform of the foreign trade system and the positive transformation of foreign trade of China's government.After decades of unremitting efforts,China has become the world's largest export trading country and also become an extremely important part of world trade.However,while enjoying the return from the prosperity and development of export trade with developing an economy with an export-oriented development strategy,the degree of dependence on the world economy is also increasing.Therefore,the rapid development of China's economy will inevitably be affected by the world economic instability and the impact of external risks.Studies have shown that under the impact of political and economic uncertainty and other external risks in various countries,it is difficult for most of China's export trade to maintain longterm market share after a short period of integration into export destination countries,and eventually gradually withdraw from the export destination market,resulting in short duration of most trade relations.The global economic downturn has led to a downturn in global trade.China,as one of its important components,will inevitably be affected.Therefore,in the context of the new economic normal,how to maintain healthy and sustainable economic development on the basis of economic structure symmetry is an important issue.As an important component of the Chinese economy,how to maintain the sustainable development of export trade is the focus of this article.Today,in the frequent turbulence of the world economy,further study of the impact of external economic fluctuations on China's export trade has important practical significance.Therefore,this paper studies the impact of China's export duration on the background of the global financial crisis in 2008.In the context of the global financial crisis in 2008,this paper selected the export data of China's HS6 products for 17 years from 1998 to 2014,and adopted the dynamic treatment assignment model for the first time to study the impact of the financial crisis on the duration of China's export trade.The method can only calculate the impact probability of survival for the first time and on the basis of further expansion,calculate the specific impact of the export duration.The specific conclusions are as follows: Firstly,the treatment effect and the average processing effect of the outbreak of the financial crisis on the export survival function,the processing effect of the export duration and the average processing effect are negative,and the degree of influence after 4 years after the crisis is decreasing or easing gradually;secondly,the impact of the financial crisis on the export duration of export products for landlocked countries and non-landlocked countries is still negative,and the sustainability of export products of landlocked countries is affected from the perspective of survival function slightly smaller,but the export duration is slightly different depending on the export situation before the crisis;again,through the classification of agricultural products and industrial products,the initial conclusion can still be proved,and the export sustainability of agricultural products is significantly less affected than industrial products;Through the robustness test,the conclusion of this paper is proved to be robust.At the end of this paper,based on the conclusions and current situation of this paper,the policy recommendations are proposed through the two perspectives of the state and the enterprise.