Study On The Impact Of House Price Changing On The Supply Level And Efficiency Of Indemnificatory Apartment

China's indemnificatory apartment market and commercial housing market are complemented by each other,such as providing housing for different groups with different requests.Besides,there are competition for land between them.Therefore,in the process of optimizing the supply of indemnificatory apartment,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to understand whether the changing of housing price will affect the supply level and efficiency of indemnificatory apartment.Based on the existing domestic and foreign literatures and existing relevant theoretical foundations,this paper combines Quasi-public Goods Theory,Welfare Economics and the Theory of Government Intervention to define the supply level that meets all the demand for indemnificatory apartment as the ‘reasonable demand level' of indemnificatory apartment.The maximum supply of indemnificatory apartment referring to the government's reasonable preferences and objective financial capabilities is defined as the ‘reasonable supply level'.Once meeting the demand for indemnificatory apartment and catching the government's financial capacity,the supply of indemnificatory apartment achieves efficiency,while the supply level at this time is defined as the ‘effective supply level' of the indemnificatory apartment.Based on these definitions,establish a utility model for housing demanders and governments,and derives reasonable supply of indemnificatory apartment.Analyze the gap between the ‘real supply level' and ‘effective supply level' of indemnificatory apartment in various situations.In addition,the impact mechanism of housing prices on the supply of indemnificatory apartment is also analyzed from four aspects including ‘government supply capacity and preference',‘resident demand',‘macroeconomic development level' and ‘commodity housing market'.Before the empirical analysis,this paper first uses a software named as tableau,to visualize the situations of China's indemnificatory apartment supply and some other relevant variables,and visually find that the supply level of China's indemnificatory apartment shows a trend of lowering from the western region to the eastern region.In order to more accurately represent the dynamic changes in housing prices,this article uses the "year-on-year growth rate of housing prices" as a measure of housing price changes.The empirical part of this paper corresponds to the theoretical part.Using the data of 30 countries from 2014 to 2016,the reasonable supply forecasting model of the indemnificatory apartment is obtained,and the reasonable supply level of the indemnificatory apartment is calculated by substituting the data of the provinces and cities in China.After get the numbers of the supply efficiency of indemnificatory apartment in 30 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2016,it is found that the situation of the supply efficiency of indemnificatory apartment is similar to the supply level of indemnificatory apartment.In addition,this paper makes use of the above data on the supply efficiency of the housing and the data of the supply of indemnificatory apartment or other variables in the same corresponding years and geographical spans to efficiency.And make the empirical analysis of the impact of housing prices on the supply level and efficiency of indemnificatory apartment,respectively,using both stepwise regression and path analysis.It is found that house price changes have no significant direct impact on the supply level and efficiency of China's indemnificatory apartment,but there are significant indirect effects,mainly from two aspects: First,the impacts of the changing of housing price through the urbanization rate on the supply of indemnificatory apartment supply level and efficiency show positive indirect effects.Second,the government's fiscal capacity has an intermediary negative impact of house price on the supply level and efficiency of the public housing.Finally,this paper conducts the path analysis of the western and eastern provinces of China,to study whether there is regional difference within the impact of housing prices on the supply level and efficiency of indemnificatory apartment.The results show that in the western provinces of China,housing prices have a significant direct impact on the supply level and efficiency of indemnificatory apartment.In the eastern provinces of China,there are significant indirect effects of housing prices on the supply level and efficiency of indemnificatory apartment.Combined with the theoretical conclusions of this paper and the theory of housing filtration,this paper argues that when housing prices are high and there are large fluctuations,the government can further improve the supply efficiency of housing through combining market regulation to compensate for government intervention failures,broadening sources of funds and housing resources,and strengthening incentives for indemnificatory apartment in eastern China.