The Impact Of China’s Household Sector Leverage On The Quality Of Economic Growth

The high leverage ratio is a prominent problem facing China’s economy.China’s macro leverage ratio has obvious structural characteristics among different departments and within various departments.The idea of the central "structural de-leverage" is to require us to fully consider the structural problems of China’s macro-leverage rate in the process of de-leveraging,in order to reduce the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprise departments and government departments as soon as possible.It is possible to maintain the stability of economic growth.Based on this,many scholars have pointed out that the household sector can be leveraged to alleviate the economic fluctuations caused by China’s rapid de-leverage.Since the reform and opening up,China’s GDP has grown from 0.3678 trillion yuan in 1978 to 90.0309 trillion yuan in 2018,achieving rapid economic development.However,while the economic volume has increased substantially,China’s economic growth has also experienced some quality problems,such as economic structural imbalances,fluctuations in economic growth,waste of resources,and environmental pollution.At this stage,China has entered a new normal of economic growth,and the pattern of economic growth has gradually shifted from extensive to intensive.While the state pays attention to maintaining a certain rate of economic growth,it is also paying more and more attention to the improvement of the quality of economic growth.Horizontally compared with developed economies,the current level of leverage in China’s residential sector is still at a low level,but in terms of vertical view,the leverage ratio of China’s residents has risen from 3% in 1996 to 49.2% in the first quarter of 2018,showing a rapid The rising trend,through the analysis of the current situation of the leverage ratio of China’s resident sector,can be found that the rapid increase in the leverage ratio of China’s residential sector is mainly caused by the increase in residential mortgage loans.That is to say,there are serious structural problems in the internal leverage ratio of the residents’ departments in China.This has raised concerns about the continued leverage of the residents’ departments in China,and has begun to re-examine the leverage of China’s residential sector.Based on the life cycle hypothesis,preventive savings theory,liquidity constraint theory,short-sighted consumer behavior theory and the theory of “debt-deflation”,this paper analyzes the different types of debts of household departments in terms of household consumption,investment,people’s living standards and ecological environment.influences.Through theoretical analysis and reference to the research of Ren Baoping(2011)and other scholars,this paper selects the six dimensions of economic growth structure,stability,efficiency,openness,people’s living standards and ecological environment to construct an evaluation system for China’s economic growth quality.Principal component analysis was used to measure the quality of China’s economic growth from 2000 to 2017.By constructing the autoregressive distributed lag model(ARDL),the impact of the leverage ratio of China’s residential sector on the quality of economic growth is analyzed.The empirical results show that the short-term consumer loan/GDP has a positive impact on the quality of China’s economic growth,while the residents have a medium-and long-term impact.Consumer loans/GDP and resident operating loans/GDP have a negative impact on the quality of economic growth in the long run.Based on the empirical research results,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from moderately stimulating the debt consumption potential of Chinese residents,strengthening the supervision of Internet financial platform,regulating private lending and restraining the real estate market bubble.