Analyst Tracking,Voluntary Performance Forecast And Stock Price Crash Risk

The large fluctuations in stock prices are an important phenomenon in the capital market.The stock price of listed companies suddenly fell at a high level,which may cause the stock price to collapse and even be transmitted to the entire stock market.As the result,there will be negative impacts on the stability of the capital market and the property security of investors.Based on this,all sectors of society are very concerned about the violent fluctuations in stock prices.With the development of the domestic capital market,China has gradually established a number of securities intermediaries represented by securities analysts,and formed an stable information disclosure system for listed companies,the purpose of which is to alleviate the information asymmetry in the capital market,stabilize the stock price and prevents the outbreak of the stock price crash.However,the securities analysts and the disclosure system of the performance of listed companies did not play the above role,which were expected to be highly anticipated.On the contrary,the analysts who predict the "optimistic bias" and the "modified" performance of listed companies have passed the wrong signal to investors,which has aggravated the market information asymmetry.More importantly,when the securities company analysts cooperate with the listed company’s managers for their own interests,the stock price collapse risk,which has been gradually accumulated,will be further amplified.Therefore,researching analyst tracking,voluntary performance forecast on the impact of stock price collapse risk and its transmission path has great theoretical and practical significance for a comprehensive understanding of the role of analyst forecasts and performance forecasts in the capital market,reducing the risk of China’s stock price collapse,as well as promoting the stable development of the stock market.Based on the analysis of the reasons for the stock price collapse risk,this paper sorts out the characteristics of the analyst tracking and the impact,the motivation of the performance report and the theoretical framework of the results.the variables are established based on the three assumptions and the empirical research model is established.In terms of empirical research,this paper takes China’s A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2017 as the research object,collects the annual observation values of listed companies,and then uses descriptive statistics and multiple regressionanalysis to study the data.Mainly studied the relationship and conduction path between analyst tracking,performance forecast and stock price collapse risk.The results show that:(1)there is a positive correlation between the number of listed companies being tracked by analysts and the risk of stock price collapse of listed companies;(2)there is a significant positive correlation between whether listed companies issue voluntary performance forecasts and stock price collapse risks;(3)When a listed company issues a voluntary performance forecast,it will significantly increase the positive correlation between analyst tracking and the risk of stock price collapse.Based on the above research conclusions and combined with the actual situation,this paper believes that:(1)regulators should continue to improve the information disclosure system,whether it is for securities intermediaries or listed companies,information disclosure behavior should be strengthened supervision,and strict the investigation of interest transmission;(2)The listed company shall strictly abide by the information disclosure regulations to ensure the reliability of the disclosed information;(3)the securities analysts shall strengthen their technical analysis capabilities and self-discipline capabilities,and strictly adhere to the professional ethics bottom line;(4)investors should maintain objective rationality,do not blindly follow the trend,should be screened for information on the market,improve self-analysis ability.