A Study Of The Effect Of Management Performance Forecast On Stock Price Crash Risk

The sharp rise and fall of stock price is an important phenomenon in capital market.The accumulation of the crash risk has a negative impact on the operation of the capital market and the security of the investor's property.Therefore,regulators,investors and scholars pay attention to the phenomenon.In the beginning of 2017,the crash of Beingmate(06863.HK)showed that the crash risk was harmful to the capital market.Under the background of accumulation of financial risk,the research on the crash risk has theoretical and practical significance.Ball and Shivakumar(2008)proposes that mandatory disclosure is not the main source of the latest news.Beyer et al.(2010)also proposes that compared to the annual report which can only explain 12% of the quarterly stock price variance,the forecast can explain 55% of the quarterly stock price variance.On the base of the analysis of three causes of the crash risk,the paper combs the theoretical framework of the forecast,the corporate governance and the institutional investor.Therefore,the paper puts forward 5 hypotheses.The paper defines variables and designs empirical research model.Taking all the listed companies of A share market during 2007-2016 as the research objects,the paper carries out the descriptive statistics,correlation analysis,single factor analysis and multiple regression analysis.It is found that there is a correlation between the performance forecast and the crash risk.The performance forecast of good-news type has a significantly positive impact on the crash risk.The performance forecast of bad-news type has a significantly negative impact on the crash risk.There is a significantly positive correlation between the net profit level of the performance forecast and the crash risk.There is a significantly negative correlation between the bias of the performance forecast and the crash risk.Corporate governance and institutional investor can significantly weaken the correlation between the net profit level of the performance forecast and the crash risk.