| Since the reform and opening up in 1998,China's economy has grown rapidly and has achieved remarkable achievements.In this process,the real estate industry has always been a pillar industry of China's economic development,making a non-negligible contribution to economic development.The real estate industry not only develops rapidly,but also occupies a considerable proportion in the economy,and its upstream and downstream industries are more,which has a great pulling effect on economic growth.However,the real estate industry will also have certain negative effects on economic development,such as the crowding-out effect of real estate investment,and the rapid rise in housing prices will make capital from substantial to fictitious and so on.At present,China is in a critical period of economic transformation,and it coincides with Sino-US trade frictions.How to lead the healthy development of the real estate industry,give full play to its role in promoting the economy,and promote the successful transformation of the economy is a problem worthy of study.The mechanism for the real estate industry to drive economic growth mainly includes two aspects: investment transmission and consumption conduction.From the perspective of investment: the real estate industry not only directly stimulates economic growth through real estate development investment,but also stimulates economic growth by influencing related industry investment.In addition,the real estate industry also promotes economic growth by influencing local fiscal investment.From the perspective of consumption,the real estate industry will affect economic growth by affecting various consumption.The regional difference in the pulling effect of the real estate industry on economic growth is mainly due to the difference in industrial structure between regions,the difference in multiplier effect and the difference in wealth effects of housing prices.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper selects the panel data of 68 large and medium-sized cities nationwide from 2000 to 2016,takes the real estate industry as the research object,selects the indicators of real estate development and real estate management for research.At the same time,labor input,human capital investment,physical capital investment and fiscal expenditure are added as control variables to study the regional differences in the pulling effect of urban economic growth.This paper establishes a panel regression model and uses the dynamic panel GMM estimation method to analyze the impact of the real estate industry on the economic growth of each city.The empirical results show that the real estate industry has a large regional difference in the driving effect of urban economic growth: real estate development has the greatest promotion effect on the economic growth of the three types of cities,followed by the second-class cities,and has the least impact on the economic growth of the first-class cities;Real estate management has the greatest promotion effect on the economic growth of the three types of cities,followed by the first category of cities,and the least impact on the economic growth of the second type of cities.Since the real estate industry has different pulling effects on the economic growth of different cities,in order to effectively exert the positive effect of the real estate industry on economic development,the following measures can be taken: First,according to the real estate industry's differences in the economic growth of the first,second and third types of cities,we should establish different real estate control systems to guide the healthy development of the real estate industry,and give full play to the real estate industry's role in promoting economic growth without affecting economic transformation.The second is to rationally guide the allocation of resources,and formulate regionally differentiated economic development strategies according to the different degrees of impact of labor,capital and fiscal expenditure on economic growth,and promote the coordinated development of each city's economy. |
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