Research On The Effect Of Deviant Strategy On The Accuracy Of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast

The modern capital market is a kind of information market that can fully and timely reflect the value of information.As an important information intermediary in the capital market,the value of financial analysts lies in providing accurate earnings forecasts for market participants.Analysts often use their industry expertise and analytical ability to collect information and related materials of listed companies,professional interpretation and analysis,and then publish earnings forecasts,so information is an important factor affecting the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts.The formulation of corporate strategy will affect the allocation of resources,and the increase of deviant strategy will make its own business plan and development path deviate from the normal behavior of the industry,which will increase the volatility of internal performance and then the value correlation of the earnings information will be weaken.The change in the value relevance of corporate earnings information may affect the analyst’s forecast behavior.Based on this,this paper explores the impact of companies’ deviant strategy on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts.Based on the data of the A-share listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2007 to 2016,based on the data of the seller analysts’ earnings forecasts,through the necessary sample preparation and sample selection,the final regression samples are obtained,and then this paper researches the impact of companies’ deviant strategy on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts.The research results indicate that the higher the companies’ deviant strategy,the lower the accuracy of the earnings forecast.In addition,based on the theory of information asymmetry,this paper further explored the regulation effect on deviant strategy and the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts from three perspectives: subject,object and external environment of the analyst predicts behavior.First,as the subject of the predicts behavior,analysts are information diggers and disseminators,they can provide more useful information to the market by using their professional analysis capabilities,and then effectively reducing the level of information asymmetry.Second,the listed company as the object of analyst prediction,this paper suggests that when the quality of corporate information disclosure is high,the accounting information will be more transparent,and the analyst’s earnings forecast will be easier.Finally,the improvement of external legal system provides pressure and guarantee for enterprise information disclosure,prompting enterprises to disclose more useful accounting information,and then reduce the difficulty predicted by the analyst.The research finds that by reducing the level of information asymmetry,the increase in analyst competition and transparency of corporate information and the improvement of the legal environment all weaken the negative correlation between the companies’ deviant strategy and the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts.This paper provides a theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the impact of the companies’ deviant strategy on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts,and further analyzes the constraint impact of information asymmetry on the relationship between he companies’ deviant strategy and analysts’ earnings accuracy from three perspectives of the subject,object and external environment of analysts predict behavior.On the basis of this paper and related research,the CSRC should intensify the supervision and improve the disclosure system of the non-financial information to improve the information environment and reduce the degree of information asymmetry,it is also necessary to strengthen the supervision of analyst behavior in the securities industry to improve the information environment,and reduce the impact of insider trading and conflicts of interest.At the same time,analysts should correctly understand the risks and opportunities of companies’ deviant strategy so that they can better make earnings forecasts.