Study On The Measurement And Prediction Of Real Estate Bubble In Changsha City

As one of the pillar industries of Changsha economy,the health of the real estate industry is directly related to the quality of the economic operation of the whole region.In order to understand more the health status and future trends of the real estate market in Changsha City,this study built the relevant bubble measurement index system,by collecting the relevant panel data of changsha from 1999 to 2015,based on previous research,from the actual situation of Changsha City,calculated the comprehensive index of real estate bubble over the yeas by factor analysis method,and the conclusion is the market in Changsha in 1999,2009 and 2015 was overhead,and the abnormal postive bubble appeared.In 2001 and 2005,the market was in a state of depression,the abonormal negetive bubble appeared,then based on the caculation results of factor analysis,the comprehensive bubble index of Changsha City in the next five years is predicted by the gray prediction model is feasible to predict the trend of bubble change in Changsha City.The moedel accuracy reaches level 2.Changsha City will enter the expansion period of foam in 2016-2020,but the expansion speed of bubble is not fast.Finally,through the result of the above empirical study for the prevention of Changsha real estate bubble further expansion put forward some reference suggestions:the government should reduce the current land supply in the market,stimulate rigid demand,crack down on speculation in the market and so on.