Research Nn Real Estate Bubble Based On Factor Analysis Method

Real estate industry is the leading industry in China's market economy.Therefore,whether the real estate market operates healthily or not also plays an important role in the national economy.There are many methods of measuring the real estate bubble,such as index method,modeling method and statistical method.By comparing the three methods above,we choose statistical method to conduct the empirical research.We select the quarterly data from 2005 to 2017 for the empirical research on the degree of real estate bubble in Henan province.The result is that real estate bubble shows a short downward trend from 2005 to 2012,and rises rapidly since 2013,indicating that the real estate bubble has been accumulating and the risk of bubbles is high.Then we analyze the influencing factors of the real estate bubble in Henan province.Using the VAR model,Co-integration test,Granger causality test and impulse response analysis,we conclude that the GDP growth rate,the ratio of import and export,the growth rate of broad money supply and the growth rate of financial revenue have a significant positive impact on the real estate bubble.The higher the economic development level,the higher the opening up level,the more money supply and the higher financial revenue,the more serious the real estate bubble will be.At the end of this paper,we propose some specific measures and suggestions to prevent the real estate bubble.Although the collection and integration of real estate data is difficult and the degree of real estate bubble is not easy to calculate,the estimate and prevention of real estate bubble is still necessary.