Study On The Measure Of Real Estate Bubble In Hefei City

1998 witnessed the abolishment of the welfare housing system in China and the reformed the housing system,in the wake of which,China's real estate industry start the marketization operation and the real estate market developed rapidly.The remarkable achievements in the housing system reform announce the real estate industry as a pillar industry and new growth point of economic development to foster infrastructure construction and the urbanization.Along with which,however,in recent years problems emerge that the speculative investment soars and the rising house prices as to put increasing pressure on residents to purchase housing.The question of whether there is a bubble in China's real estate market has become the focus of debate.Prevention and control aimed at the result of measurement method of Hefei real estate bubble are therefore of realistic significance for relevant government departments in making a rational judgment of the current real estate prices and formulating regulation policy to ensure a sound development of the market.In this paper,the background information,the significance,the methods and contents of the study are expounded and the current research of real estate bubble measurement method at home and abroad is discussed in detail.At the very beginning the definition,characteristics,causes,hazards of the bubble as well as related theory are all included.Then the three kinds of commonly used methods of the housing bubble are analyzed.Much importance is attached to specific evaluation standards and the advantages and disadvantages of the index.Next,seven indexes for analysis of existence and bubble level in Hefei real estate,housing price-to-Income ratio and price-to-rent ratio and so on are reflected in statistical charts for longitudinal analysis.The different bubble level resulting from these index measurements make index weigh determination difficult.Variants like money supply,urban residents per capita disposable income,permanent residents and so on are therefore considered as effecting economic fundamentals on real estate prices.The stepwise regression method is adopted to establish statistical regression model to calculate the real estate base value and bubble degree,longitudinal and comparative analysis of which in different years shows its trend in Hefei.In the end,on the basis of the analysis of bubble degree,the suggestions of preventing real estate bubble as to strength the management of resources,improve the housing system,perfect the tax system of real estate,enforce the supervision of real estate credit and real estate market order are offered in order to provide intellectual support to government related departments.The study indicates different years present different real estate bubble levels in Hefei.During the seventeen years from 2000 to 2006,there is real estate bubble,evidently in 2000,2006,2010 and 2011.The Year 2002,2003,2008,2009 and 2013 featured negative bubble,namely,commodity housing market price lower than the basic value.Despite the truth that in the first half year of 2016 the average price of commercial house sales increased greatly,especially in the downtown area in Hefei,the bubble level has been effectively suppressed thanks to development trends in 2015 and the restrictions on both the purchase and the price and other strict policies in the latter half year of 2016.