A Study Of The Influence On Reverse Technology Spillover Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment To Total Factor Productivity Of China's Manufacturing Industry

Since China entered into WTO,foreign direct investment has grown rapidly.In 2018,China's OFDI has reached 129.83 billion US dollars,exceeding the scale of absorbing foreign capital,and achieving net capital export.Currently,China ranks third in the world in outward OFDI flows and second in stock.Manufacturing industry is the basic industry of national economy.With the rapid development of economy and society,the traditional manufacturing industry has integrated more factors such as producer services,networking,information technology,globalization and so on,forming a modern manufacturing industry,which has become a key area of foreign direct investment,and has attracted the attention of countries.The report of the Nineteenth National Congress pointed out that we should speed up the construction of a powerful manufacturing country and the development of advanced manufacturing industry.This points out the direction for China's manufacturing industry to improve total factor productivity and realize the transformation from "Made in China" to "Made in China by Intelligence".However,the total factor productivity of China's manufacturing industry is not high,and the overall division of labor in the global value chain is still relatively low.Compared with developed countries,it is not competitive.Therefore,China should seize the important opportunity of rapid development of OFDI,enhance the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry,and realize the transformation of economic development mode.This thesis systematically defines the connotation of OFDI and total factor productivity of manufacturing industry on the basis of domestic and foreign scholars' relevant research and related theories on OFDI and manufacturing industry total factor productivity.The theory of OFDI and the theory of industrial development are further studied.Then,according to the different investment motivation,the influence mechanism of three types of OFDI on total factor productivity of manufacturing industry is studied.DEA-Malmquist method is used to calculate the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry in China,and the present situation of total factor productivity of manufacturing industry is obtained.Taking total factor productivity of manufacturing industry as explanatory variable,economic development level,export intensity,R&D input and transportation infrastructure as explanatory variable,this thesis uses GMM method to dynamically analyze the impact of OFDI on total factor productivity of manufacturing industry.The results show that technology-seeking OFDI promotes the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry in the long run and short run,and the economic development level promotes the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry most obviously in the short run.But in the long run,it does not promote.Export intensity has no obvious promoting effect in the short term,but has significant promoting effect in the long term.Under the interaction of R&D input and technology-seeking OFDI,the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry is positively correlated under the lag period one.However,there is no obvious relationship between transportation infrastructure and total factor productivity of manufacturing industry.Then,the system dynamics model is used to analyze the impact of reverse technology spillover of OFDI on total factor productivity of manufacturing industry.On this basis,the causality diagram is drawn,and then the flow chart of the relationship between reverse technology spillover of OFDI and total factor productivity of manufacturing industry is established,and the authenticity is tested.Finally,according to the current situation analysis and empirical results,the thesis puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry.