Study On The Land Comprehensive Bearing Capacity Of Zhangzhou From The Perspective Of Ecology-Production-Living

Land not only carries a series of activities such as the production,living and economic construction of human society,but also has important ecological functions.Its indispensibility and limited supply make it prominent among numerous resources.Due to the rapid development of China's economy,urbanization and industrialization combined with a large population,it results in a sharp decline in cultivated land,ecological environmental pollution and other problems and becomes a constraint in China's sustainable development.To alleviate the contradiction between people and land,it is necessary to optimize the spatial layout of the land on the basis of studying the comprehensive carrying capacity of the land,so as to provide an important reference for regional sustainable development.This paper takes Zhangzhou City as the research area combined with human-land relationship,resource scarcity,sustainable development,grey system and other theories to evaluate and predict the changes of land comprehensive carrying capacity and future development trend in the study area from the perspective of ecology,production and living.The main contents of the study include:(1)Analyze the current situation of land use and the changes in land use quantity and speed in Zhangzhou to find out the characteristics and problems of it by interpreting the remote sensing images of Zhangzhou in 2004 and combining the land use database of Zhangzhou in 2010 and 2016;(2)Based on the ecological,productive and living functions of land,combined with the actual situation of Zhangzhou,an evaluation index system of the comprehensive bearing capacity of land in zhangzhou city was constructed.Then,the index weight was determined by using the gray correlation entropy method.Finally,the comprehensive bearing capacity of land in Zhangzhou from 2004 to 2016 was evaluated by using the gray target model;(3)Ten indexes with high correlation with the evaluation of land comprehensive bearing capacity of Zhangzhou were selected through grey correlation analysis.GM(1,N)model was used to simulate the predicted value of comprehensive bearing capacity of land from 2004 to 2016.The simulation results were compared with GM(1,1),and the model with better simulation effect was selected to predict the comprehensive bearing capacity of land in zhangzhou city from 2017 to 2022.The results show that :(1)The degree of change of land use is more dramatic from 2004 to 2010,with the annual change rate reaching 4.58%.The degree of land use change is relatively stable compared with the previous cycle from 2010 to 2016,with the annual change rate of only 0.49%.In the whole research cycle,the construction land showed an upward trend,which was related to the social and economic development and the expansion of urban area,while the cultivated land in Zhangzhou showed a decreasing trend,resulting in the reduction of grain production in recent years.(2)From 2004 to 2016,the ecological carrying capacity of land in Zhangzhou increased from 0.7152 to 0.8128,and the carrying level changed from medium level to higher level.The bearing capacity of production has been greatly improved from the low level to the high level,and the bearing capacity score has increased from 0.6311 to 0.8451,an increase of 33.90%.The estimated value of living carrying capacity increased from 0.5642 to 0.8473,an increase of 50.18%.In the 13 years,the relationship between the three subsystems changed from the ecological carrying capacity > production carrying capacity > living carrying capacity to the living carrying capacity > production carrying capacity > ecological carrying capacity.The comprehensive land carrying capacity is affected by the interaction of three subsystems: ecological,production and living carrying capacity of land,rising from 0.6658 to 0.8520,and the bearing capacity level is converted from a lower level to a higher level.(3)Through the gray correlation analysis of the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Zhangzhou,10 indicators such as mechanization degree,population density,proportion of tertiary industry and forest coverage rate play a key role in the development of comprehensive land carrying capacity in Zhangzhou.The 10 indicators are substituted into the GM(1,N)model,and the average relative error of prediction is 2.55%,which is better than 3.29 of gray GM(1,1).The grey GM(1,N)model was used to predict the comprehensive bearing capacity of land in zhangzhou city from 2017 to 2022.It is concluded that the comprehensive carrying capacity of Zhangzhou in the next six years is generally on the rise,and the maximum comprehensive bearing capacity of land relative to 2004 is 0.8917 in 2022.(4)According to the research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions on improving the comprehensive bearing capacity of land in Zhangzhou city from four aspects: adhere to the strict farmland protection system to enhance the bearing capacity of land production;strengthen the infrastructure construction to enhance the bearing capacity of land living;protect the ecological environment to enhance the ecological bearing capacity of land;balance the population distribution and establish the consciousness of sustainable development.