Study On The Measurement Of Real Estate Bubble~2 Based On Heterogeneous Panel Data

With the rapid development of China's national economy,the real estate industry is developing rapidly.Its benign development has a tremendous role in promoting national economic development,improving people's living standards and social stability.But China's real estate prices continue to rise,especially in China's 35 large and medium-sized cities.The government,enterprises and the public arc highly concerned about the existence of bubbles in the real estate market.Therefore,to measure the real estate bubble in 35 large and medium-sized cities,we can put forward targeted measures to control housing prices,and promote the healthy and stable development of China's real estate industry.This study takes the measurement of real estate bubble as the research object.,On the basis of explaining the definition of real estate bubble,panel data and heterogeneity,tnis paper analyzes the general situation of the real estate market in China and 35 large and medium-sized cities;Secondly,35 large and medium-sized cities arc reasonably classified by tirst tier,second tier and three line cities;and Considering that the synithetic exponential imethod is simple to operate,it can roughly understand the bubble of housing prices,Thc market supply and demand method is closely linked to the bubble definition,and can accurately calculate the price of the housing bubble.The two comparison is more scientific and accurate.Therefore,the comprehensive index method and the market supply and demand method are used to measure the real estate bubble in 35 large and medium-sized cities.The research results are as follows:(1)Referring to the classification of cities by relevant scholars from the angle economic development and regional differences,this paper analyses the contribution of the development of real estate industry in 35 large and medium-sized cities to China's economic development and their differences in the eastern,central and Western regions.It is considered that the division of cities from a single perspective is one-sided,while the division of first,second and third-tier cities in China takes into account political status,economic strength,city size,regional radiation,and even the sequence of the real estate industry.Therefore,this study considers that it is more reasonable to classify the first-tier,second-tier and third-tier cities.(2)Five indicators were selected from the price and investment level,and the combined weights of indicators were determined by two methods,namely,analytic hierarchy process and coefficient of variation method.The results showed that the bubble of first tier,second tier and three tier cities in turn decreased,and the 3 indexes of housing price income ratio,house price growth rate/GDP growth rate,construction area/completion area showed that the bubble size had a downward trend in 2008,2011 and 2014,and the overall trend was on the rise.Real estate investment/GDP,real estate investment/fixed asset investment bubble index showed that the bubble rose in the wave.(3)Based on the methods of unit root test,cointegration test and regression model,the supply and demand variables are selected to build the market supply and demand model,and then the bubble size is measured by Stata.The results showed that the bubble level of Beijing and Shenzhen in the first tier cities in the 2009,2010,2011,2013,2015 and 2016 were significantly higher than the international bubble warning level 0.4;the second tier cities were more complicated,and the foam trend in Hangzhou,Taiyuan,Ningbo and Harbin showed an inverted "UM type,which decreased significantly after 2010;Changchun,Fuzhou,Hefei,Nanjing,Nanjing and Nanjing in 2008 and 2010.The bubble curve fluctuated,but the overall trend was on the rise.In addition,Chengdu,Chongqing,Xi'an and Zhengzhou fluctuated in a certain range.The bubble of the three tier cities was obviously weakened,and the bubble curves of Guiyang,Hohhot and Xining all fluctuated at 0 values.(4)The comparison of the two measurement results shows that the first tier,second tier and three tier cities have weakened,but the bubble measurement results of the market supply and demand law are more intuitive,and there are obvious differences among different cities.Therefore,targeted measures should be put forward.