| Under the background of strong constraints of environmental resources and the gradual loss of population development dividend,the downward pressure on China's economy is growing,so the factor-driven growth model that has long relied on the past will be unsustainable.Endogenous growth theory suggests that R&D and innovation ability will help bring the improvement of economic efficiency and enhance China's potential growth rate,therefore,China should pay more attention to the R&D investment behavior of enterprises in the period of economic transition.However,China's industrial enterprises seem to fall into the status that so-called " low tech locking ",which puts China at a low level in the international division of labor.With a great deal of resources losing and the environment worsening,the modern industrial system will be difficult to be formed,so it will be the top priority of China's economic development to crack low tech locks.All the time,the level of the real estate bubble is regarded as an important symbol to measure whether the development of the property market is stable and healthy in a country and region,and it is also one of the key causes for industrial enterprises to fall into the "low technology lock-in" status.Therefore,it gives some important reference opinions for the development strategy of the property market and the formulation of regional control policies to accurately assess and analyze the extent of the housing bubble in the region.Besides,it also provides a new idea for the transformation of the economy to correctly understand and deal with the "low technology locking" problem that accompanies the housing bubble.Based on previous studies,this paper measures the level of the provincial housing bubble and give some space-time evolution analysis,at the same time,the mechanism of threshold effect of real estate bubble on industrial R&D investment is discussed based on the perspective of enterprise heterogeneity,the main contents are as follows:Firstly,the multi-combination measure and spatio-temporal evolution of China's provincial property market bubble is analyzed.In the study of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2000 to 2015.Firstly,the repeated combination measurement model of based on the ideal GWA operator is used to measure the bubble level accurately.Then,based on the traditional regional statistical analysis,the regional difference and convergence mechanism of the property market bubble are discussed.Finally,the technique of exploration spatial data analysis(ESDA)is used to analyze the evolution of the time and space of the housing bubble further.The results show that: at first,the national property market bubble shows a "east high,west low" pattern,and there is no obvious short-term ? convergence,but the long-term absolute ? convergence is significant.Secondly the spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity of housing bubble level exist simultaneously,the most hot spots are mainly distributed in the eastern region,while theproperty market bubbles in the central and western regions are increasing year by year,and they are clustered in the local "inverted U" form.Secondly,the research on the threshold effect of industrial low technology lock with the perspective of enterprise heterogeneity.This paper selects the data of China's provincial large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in 2000 to 2015 years as the research sample.Then to use a simple theoretical model to discuss the nonlinear interaction mechanism between a real estate bubble expansion and industrial R & D strength from the perspective of firm heterogeneity,and draw some theoretical inference.Finally using the panel threshold regression model to test the theory of inference in the empirical.The results show that,whether from financing constraints,firm size or idiosyncratic enterprise structure,the property bubble has a single threshold effect of enterprise heterogeneity for firm R & D intensity.In those areas below the threshold level of enterprise characteristics,the property market bubble has a significant positive effect on corporate R & D strength,while in those areas above the threshold level,R & D strength has a effect of "innovation suppression" instead of "innovation".In other words,it is not conducive to the transformation and upgrading of enterprises and long-term economic growth in a certain degree.Finally,according to the relevant theoretical derivation and empirical test results,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations from two aspects including the property market bubble control and industrial R&D promotion.The is,to construct long-term warning mechanism for guiding the rational behavior of supply and demand;to strengthen classified partition control for avoiding "one-size-fits-all" policy errors;to improve the environment of financing constraints,control the size of enterprises reasonably and optimize the structure of enterprise property rights for eliminating the locking of low technology levels. |
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