The "Third Country" Effect Of China's Export Trade To Neighbouring Countries

Nowadays,with the deepening of economic globalization,export trade has become an important driving force for a country's economic development.In recent years,trade frictions between China and western developed countries have intensified,which has forced China to seek breakthroughs from other regions.In 2014,China proposed the “One Belt,One Road” initiative,which aims to strengthen economic and trade ties between China and Asia and Europe.In this context of international trade,the importance of China's export trade with neighboring countries is prominent.However,the real problem is that China's neighboring countries have great differences in the level of economic development,system quality and other aspects,resulting in the unbalanced distribution of China's export trade to them.Therefore,from the perspective of the "third country" effect,exploring the deep reasons for regional differences in China's export trade with neighboring countries can play a positive role in further improving China's export trade and coping with world trade protectionism.At present,the research on export trade is mainly carried out from the perspective of two countries,and the research samples are mostly concentrated in developed countries.This paper based on the mathematical model established by Cushman in 1986 which contained "third country" effect,to analysis the possibility of "third country" effect in China's export trade to neighboring countries and the transmission path,at the same time,with the Durbin model(SDM),by using the China's trade data with neighboring countries from 2003 to 2016,the "third country" effect of the various influencing factors has carried on the empirical test.This paper finds that:(1)the economic scale,the level of openness,the degree of corruption control show a significant positive relationship with China's exports to neighboring countries;the bilateral real exchange rate and infrastructure investment show a significant negative relationship with China's exports to neighboring countries.(2)There is a "third country" effect in China's export trade to neighboring countries,and this effect shows a significant "crowding-in" effect,which brings about the spatial agglomeration of export trade.The "third country" effect of economic scale,exchange rate,opening level,government efficiency and stability of political environment is positive,while the "third country" effect of infrastructure investment is negative.(3)There are significant regional differences in the influencing factors and the "third country" effect of China's export trade to neighboring countries.Therefore,when formulating export trade policies for neighboring countries,China should make full use of the "third country" effect of export trade,bring into play the cost advantages and technology spillovers brought by export trade agglomeration,and pay more attention to regional differences,in order to promote the sustainable and coordinated development of China's export trade.