Research On The Regional Financial Development Based On Bayesian Spatial Econometric Model

Financial development in our country appears regional diversity and spatial agglomeration obviously, and imbalance of regional financial development would discourage the economic development. Therefore, making a research of regional financial development from spatial econometric perspective, has an important instructive meaning to decrease the disparities and promote the coordination development of finance and economy.Building a comprehensive index system of financial development from the aspect of financial scale, financial structure and financial efficiency, then giving descriptive statistics of financial development based on the data of three areas from 2007 to 2012,it shows that the financial development in three areas appears different characteristics, and there are significant disparities between middle, west and east area. The level of financial development of 31 provinces in China of 2012 using factor analysis reveals progressive decrease in the three region of east, middle, west, and has the characteristic of spatial agglomeration obviously. Using Moran’s index to reveal the spatial relevancy from overall and partial levels shows that l evels of regional financial development in China have significant spatial correlation. Building bayesian spatial econometric models considering both spatial correlation and heterogeneity, also making a comparison between OLS, and common spatial econometric model, and then investigating the relationship between financial development and economy, polity, social and position by exploiting a series of spatial econometric models from a bayesian perspective, the results shows that financial development is caused by external shocks, which behaves as spatial errors autocorrelation, and it’s found that factor of economy, polity and social all have the positive effects on regional financial development, and regional financial development exhibits agglomeration effects difference, which is shown by the fact that the development of the eastern region is significantly exceed the other areas, while there do not exist distinct difference between the middle and the western areas. The ordinary spatial regression econometric model without considering spatial heterogeneity has deviation in model-building and estimation results, which overestimates the contribution of spatial correlation and economy to financial development, and underestimates the contribution of polity and social.