Analysis And Prediction Of The Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Price In China

The housing price issue is a hot issue in China.It involves not only the welfare of the people but also the development of the national economy.In the first-and second-tier cities,the relationship between high real estate prices and residents’ income is seriously uncoordinated,which greatly reduces residents’ sense of belonging and happiness in the city,and makes people’s funds gradually flow to third-and fourth-tier cities,resulting in housing in third-and fourth-tier cities.The price increase is also more obvious.Therefore,in order to curb the rise in real estate prices and stabilize the development of the real estate market,the state has introduced a series of regulatory and regulatory measures,but the results are not good.Therefore,it is necessary to further explore the root causes of real estate price increases,find effective influencing factors,and provide more theoretical basis for policy regulation.Based on the research on the factors affecting real estate prices by domestic and foreign scholars,this paper selects the monthly data of China’s real estate market from 2000 to 2017,analyzes the development status of China’s real estate market,and then selects its own factors,economic factors and financial factors that affect real estate prices.Qualitative and quantitative analysis of factors and factors of living standards of residents,and finally forecast the price of real estate.The specific research results are as follows: 1.Use gray correlation analysis to quantitatively explore the relative importance of these factors on real estate prices.The study found that the money supply M2,the deposit balance of financial institutions,the amount of real estate development investment,the medium and long-term loan interest rate,the gross domestic product and the real estate price have a higher gray coefficient.Secondly,the vector autoregressive model VAR is constructed by selecting the influencing factors with high correlation.The dynamic impact of these factors on real estate prices is studied.The study finds that the money supply has a positive effect on real estate prices in the short term,followed by a negative effect.The positive and negative effects are periodically alternating.The balance of various deposits of financial institutions has a high positive effect on the current period,and the long-term overall has a negative effect.The completion of real estate development investment has a positive effect on the overall real estate price.The medium and long-term loan interest rates did not respond quickly to current real estate prices,but had a positive effect on real estate prices in the later period.Gross domestic product(GDP)has a positive positive impact on real estate prices in the first 3.5 periods,and has declined slightly after the 3.5th period,and the downward trend has gradually weakened over time,and finally stabilized.Overall,the impact of GDP on real estate prices is positive.3.Use the improved neural network model to predict real estate prices,and provide a basis for promoting the steady development of the real estate industry from a forward-looking perspective.