Prediction On Energy Saving Potential Under Environmental Constraint In Western China

It is known that the western region has realized the leap-forward development in economy with the promotion of the superiority of energy and resource endowment.However,due to the relative backwardness of economic base and technology,the extensive energy operation in western region makes the ecological environment deteriorate gradually,and the contradiction between energy consumption and environmental protection is increasingly prominent,so that energy saving,consumption reduction and pollution prevention are very serious.How to objectively evaluate the actual status of energy conservation potential in western region and scientifically predict the evolution trend of the energy conservation potential in the western region to facilitate the western region formulating feasible energy saving policies,has been the top priority of the current economic work.It is also an important subject to be solved urgently.On the basis of summarizing and concluding the existing literature documents,this paper first expounds the relevant contents of low-carbon economy,environmental Kuznets curve,Porter hypothesis and sustainable development theory,and the main theoretical basis and support of the thesis are defined.Secondly,the energy efficiency and energy saving potential of all factors in China from 2000 to 2015 are calculated by adopting super-efficient SBM-Undesirable model,and a evaluation of the energy conservation potential in western China have been made from the overall and provincial perspectives,and then,the Elman neural network model is used to predict the energy conservation potential in the western region of China from 2016 to 2025,and a analysis on the evolution trend of energy conservation potential in the western region in the future have been made from the overall and provincial perspectives.Finally,Tobit model is used to measure the influence of industrial structure,environmental policy,technological innovation,energy structure and economic growth on the potential of energy conservation.It is found that there are obvious regional differences in energy efficiency and energy conservation potential of all factors in China,and the western region is the key area of energy saving and consumption reduction in China.And Ningxia,Qinghai and Xinjiang are the key areas for energy saving and consumption reduction in the western regions of China at present,and the development philosophy like "the Eleventh FiveYear Plan" and "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan" are conducive to the development of energy conservation and consumption reduction in the western region.The future energy conservation and consumption reduction work in Ningxia,Qinghai and Xinjiang has to be paid special attention to.There are significant correlation between industrial structure,environmental policy,technological innovation,energy structure and economic growth with energy conservation potential.Therefore,on the basis of issuing more energy policies,the western region shall continue its efforts in green development,energy industrial structure,energy consumption structure,energy technology innovation,economic development mode,regional differentiation policy,etc.so as to better achieve the goal of energy saving and consumption reduction in the western region.