| In recent years,with the continuous acceleration of urbanization and industrialization,the intensity of space resource utilization has gradually increased,leading to an increase in the contradictions between different users in the use of space resources,and an intensification in the contradictions between urban living-production space,agricultural production space and ecological space.The pattern of territorial space has been seriously affected.How to mitigate the conflicts between multifunctional spaces has become one of the important issues that need to be solved urgently.This paper takes Changli County as the research area.Based on dominant function and secondary function of land use,the territorial space is divided into living-production space,production-ecological space,ecologicalproduction space and ecological space.Based on the landscape ecological index,a spatial conflict measurement model is constructed to estimate the intensity of the production-livingecological spatial conflict in Changli County in 2004,2010 and 2016,and analyse its evolutionary characteristics.The CA-Markov model is used to predict and optimize the spatial layout of the production-living-ecological space in Changli County in 2025.The changes of spatial layout and conflict during the predicted spatial pattern and optimized spatial pattern are analyzed.The following results and conclusions are obtained:(1)From 2004 to 2016,the production-living-ecological space in Changli County is dominated by production-ecological space,followed by living-production space.With the passage of time,the intensity that the living-production space and the production-ecological space encroach on the ecological-production space and the ecological space is gradually increasing,especially near rivers such as the Luanhe River and the Jiahe River.Affected by economic development,the spatial conversion intensity has become more prominent.(2)From 2004 to 2016,the overall level of spatial conflict in Changli County is on the rise,and the number of strong spatial conflict units gradually increases.The stronger spatial conflict units are concentrated in Changli Town and Zhugezhuang Town that are concentrated around the living production space.With the passage of time,the degree of concentration has continued to increase.(3)The spatial pattern of land use in Changli County in 2025 is simulated by using CAMarkov model,and then divided into production-living-ecological space.From the perspective of spatial layout,the location of each function space layout in 2025 is basically unchanged compared with 2016.Among them,the area of living-production space has further expanded,forming a gathering center in Changli Town,Zhugezhuang Town and Huangdianzhuang Town,which also forms a clear banded connection layout.The ecological space area along the Luanhe River has been significantly reduced,and the ecologicalproduction land around the river is threatened by the invasion of the production-ecological space.Judging from the change in the intensity of spatial conflict,the level of spatial conflict in Changli County is on the rise from 2016 to 2025,mainly with strong spatial conflict.(4)On the basis of the simulated constraints,this paper increases constraints to optimize the result of the simulated layout in 2025 from roads,cluster centers,industrial development,ecological protection,etc.,and obtain the production-living-ecological spatial optimized pattern.Compared with the result of the simulated layout in 2025,the concentration of living-production space has increased,mainly concentrated in the 205 National highway,the development zone of the Luan River,and the vicinity of key towns.The proportion of ecological-production space has also increased.The intensity of spatial conflict tends to be medium spatial conflict intensity,and the spatial utilization conflict has been reduced,which improves the coordination and stability of spatial utilization.This study can provide support and basis to alleviate the production-living-ecological spatial conflict for Changli County and formulate policies for the optimal allocation of the territorial space in county areas.It also can provide reference for the coordination and management of the relationship between regional socio-economic development and ecological environmental protection,as well as medium and small scale territorial spatial coordination and sustainable management. |
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