The Impact Of New And Old Driving Forces On The Upgrading Speed Of Industrial Structure In Different Provinces Of China

China has been on track for growth of under 8 percent since 2012,who ended its rapid development and embraced medium to high speed growth.As the upgrading of industrial structure is one of the important ways to change the mode of regional economic development,it's important to find out the following questions.Which trend will it be during the period of the transformation of new and old driving forces? What are the differences in industrial restructuring and upgrading among different provinces? And why? What are the effective factors driving industrial structure to adjust and upgrade during this special stage of economic cycle?On the basis of the existing theoretical research,this paper constructs a multi-sectoral neoclassical growth model of two countries and expounds the impact of investment,export,consumption and innovation on the upgrading of industrial structure from the theoretical level.In order to depict the direction and speed of industrial structure adjustment more intuitively,this paper constructs the index of industrial structure upgrading speed based on the revised Lillien index.Then we calculates the industrial structure upgrading speed of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2015,and analyses the similarities and differences of industrial structure upgrading among different regions in China.In the part of empirical test,using the province panel data of China from 2006 to 2015 as the sample,the impact of new and old driving forces on the upgrading speed of industrial structure is tested by using the System GMM method.Then,the time range of the study is divided into two periods for robustness test,and China is divided into eastern regions and other regions for another robustness test.Finally,we test the heterogeneity of different industries,using the upgrading speed of secondary industry and tertiary industry as explanatory variables and their corresponding four driving forces data as GMM test.The results of this study show that the industrial structure upgrading speed of most provinces is reversed and the industrial structure upgrading speed of different provinces is quite different.The industrial structure upgrading speeds of provinces located in southeastern coastal areas are generally faster than those of central or western provinces,and the industrial structure upgrading speeds of central and northeastern regions are the slowest.Since 2007,the industrial structure upgrading speed of all regions in China has been aggravated.In the test exploring the impact of new and old driving forces on the upgrading speed of industrial structure,we find that investment and export play a less prominent role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure than before,while consumption and innovation play an increasingly significant role in accelerating the upgrading speed of industrial structure.During the process of industrial structure upgrading,innovation is of great significance to the optimization and upgrading of the second industrial structure,while consumption plays a vital role in the optimization and upgrading of the third industrial structure.