The Relationship Between Bank Credit And Real Estate Prices In China

Since 1998,the market reform of commercial housing market have implemented,the rapid growth and prosperity of the real estate market has made great contributions to the growth of the national economy and has become a pillar industry of China's economic development.But recalling the financial crisis,asset prices volatility will have a financial impact,making the negative impact on economic stability,so the rapid rise in housing prices increasingly attract people's attention.And the government have been taking appropriate measures to regulate the real estate prices,but the effect of policy control are so different,due to the real estate market has the phenomenon of urban differentiation.The credit policy plays an important role in the regulation of real estate prices,because bank credit is an important source of funds to support the development of real estate industry,and by observing the relationship between bank credit and real estate prices,there is a trend of simultaneous increase.So,bank credit and real estate prices is what kind of relationship?What is the difference in the situation in different city?What kind of credit policy can play a better effect on the regulation of house prices?Following this series of questions,this paper will explore the relationship between bank credit and real estate prices,and analyze the reasons for the difference between the two banks in different types of cities in order to put forward more targeted policies suggests.This paper first reviews the relevant literatures at domestic and abroad,then summarizes them.On this basis,it introduces the development of real estate market and bank credit in China.Because the two in different cities in the performance of a great difference,so this article will divide 35 cities into first-tier cities,hot second-tier cities and ordinary second-tier cities in three cities to do research and analysis.This paper analyzes the factors that influence the real estate price from the perspective of supply and demand,and then makes a qualitative analysis by the local equilibrium model theory.Then,through the theory and practice data,researching the different transmission mechanisms between the bank credit and the real estate price in different cities,it is concluded that the increase of bank credit will lead to the increase of real estate price,the rise of house prices will also promote the expansion of bank credit,there is spiral between the rise and decline of the transmission mechanism of bank credit and real estate prices,hot second-tier cities in line with this.The transmission mechanism of the first-tier cities is mainly the first stage of the theoretical transmission mechanism,and the transmission mechanism of the ordinary second-tier cities still stays in the preparatory stage of entering the theoretical transmission mechanism.In order to verify this relationship,this paper carries out various empirical tests,the first is using the error correction model from the macro level test real estate prices and bank credit in the long and short term,the relationship between them has a long-term stable relationship,long-term bank credit makes an increase of 1%,the real estate prices rose 0.56%.Short-term dynamic regression results show that the impact of bank credit changes on the price of the first positive impact,there is a slight negative impact,and finally there will be a continuous positive impact.The impact of real estate prices on bank credit is a fast and sustained positive effect in the short term.In contrast,the impact of real estate prices on bank credit is greater than the impact of bank credit on real estate prices.The results of the Granger causality test show that the relationship between bank credit and real estate prices is Granger causality.This paper also makes a panel empirical analysis of the real estate price factors in the three types of cities.The empirical results show that the bank credit loans and per capita disposable income have a significant positive impact on the real estate price of the first-tier cities,but the population flow and acreage supply are significant negative impact.Bank credit and per capita disposable income can be used to analyze the real estate price of the three types of cities.The disposable income has a significant positive impact on the real estate prices of the first-tier cities,but the population flow and the land supply area have significant negative effects.The scale of bank credit loans and per capita disposable income have a significant positive impact on the price of hot second-tier cities,and the population movement has a significant negative impact on house prices.The real estate prices of the majority of ordinary cities are subject to bank credit loans scale or per capita disposable income are the significant positive impact.According to the results of the study,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions for the different city conditions of the three cities,including the cities of the first-tier cities and cities to let the land size control,to ease the population,to invest in the surrounding cities;hot second-tier cities Effectively reduce the leverage,strengthen supervision;ordinary second-tier cities of the city to be combined with urbanization and household registration system reform,and actively digest the inventory;the national level to establish a real estate market regulation control of long-term mechanism and other specific recommendations.