China 's Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation And Macro - Policy Effectiveness Analysis

There is the phenomenon of cyclical fluctuation in the real estate market, which is a natural social phenomenon and also be in line with the law of value. Normal cyclical fluctuations are favorable for the development of the real estate market itself, but the Chinese real estate market is imperfect, when some non-normal cyclical fluctuations occur. These excessive cyclical fluctuations will affect the normal operation of the national economy, leading to consumers,investors a great loss, which affect the real estate market resource configurations.In this paper, we use the economic and statistical methods, comparative study of methods of measurement to study the real estate cycle and the government’s counter-cyclical policies deeply. Firstly, we find the common of the Chinese real estate cycle and macroeconomic cycle. Then we make the further analysis of the Chinese real estate cycle characteristics. At the same time, we use the HP filter to find the Chinese short-term real estate cycle. We make a decision that there is three short cycles from 2007: the first cycle is from August 2007 to January 2010; the second cycle is from January 2010 to January 2013; the third cycle is from January 2013 to now. Secondly, we use the real estate market data from 2000 to 2013 to analysis the factors affecting the supply and demand of the real estate market. The factors affecting the real estate market are: macroeconomic factors, urbanization, demographic factors, land policy, investment in the real estate assets. On this basis, we use the VAR model to test how the factors affect the real estate cycle fluctuations through the pulse analysis to deepen our understanding.After the study of literature, we combine with the reality of China’s real estate to make a conclusion that Chinese real estate market is not weak propose valid. Meanwhile, we analyze the Chinese real estate market specific counter-cyclical policy and then find that the macroeconomic policy in China’s real estate market is not completely effective. So we make policy recommendations and improvements about this problem.In the development of the real estate policy, staring prices only will lead to policy changes too frequently. While staring at the macroeconomic and ignoring changes in the characteristics of the real estate market itself will cause policy ineffective. What we should do? Firstly, the real estate policy should ensure long-term stable development of the real estate market as a target,which accompanied by aseries of policy fine-tuning. Secondly, according to local conditions, the government should take timely measures in the real estate market when problems arise.In addition, the Chinese government should pay attention to cultivate an independent government. Only is the government an authoritative government of integrity in the eyes of market players, its policies may have a better execution. To solve the contradiction in the real estate market between the central government and local governments, we should increase local government revenue growth, expanding the rights of local governments and so on. For the inconsistency between various policy issues,the State Council need to set up a independent department to do a global policy in view of the real estate market. The department should unified the planning of the real estate credit, Oversight the local government to implement local real estate regulation policy, carry on the analysis to measure the fiscal policy and so on.