Modeling And Simulation Of Tourist Destination Decision-Making And Recovery Strategy After Earthquake Disaster

With the development of social economy,the importance of tourism has become increasingly prominent.But because of the high dependence of tourism on natural resources,it is highly sensitive to the environment and is highly vulnerable to the negative impact of natural disasters or crises.In recent years,China's tourism industry has been developing rapidly,which is becoming more and more important in the national economic growth,but at the same time,the frequent occurrence of natural disasters has seriously damaged the development of tourism in China.After natural disasters or crises,how to quickly restore the tourist market and shorten the recovery cycle is an urgent problem to be solved in tourism crisis management.In this study,the tourism restoration of Aba Prefecture after the August 8 2017' Jiuzhaigou earthquake is taken as the research object.Through the analysis of the influencing factors of tourist destination decision-making after the earthquake,a tourist destination decision-making model based on SOR theory is constructed.The attributes and interaction rules of scenic agent,tourist agent and scenic manager agent are set up by using agent-based modeling and simulation method.Based on Netlogo simulation platform,the process of destination decision-making of tourists after earthquake and the emergence of interactive tourists are simulated,and the dynamic evolution simulation of tourist recovery system after earthquake is realized.Secondly,scenic spot restoration,price and information scenarios are set up to simulate scenic spots when managers adopt different scenic spot restoration strategies,price strategies and information strategies.The change of market share of tourist volume is simulated to verify the effect of different strategies and to seek an effective combination of recovery strategies.The establishment of agent-based decision-making model of tourist destination after earthquake reveals the dynamic process of tourist recovery system after earthquake.By analyzing the results of model operation under the strategic situation,it is found that the strategy of restoring scenic spots in Jiuzhaigou after earthquake has obvious effect on enhancing its market share.The more the quality of restoring scenic spots is improved,the more the market share will be increased.Although the price policy be adopted can effectively enhance its market share,there is no significant difference in the effect of market share promotion brought by different price strategies.Information strategy can not only effectively enhance its market share,but also the higher the intensity of information strategy,the higher the market share will be.Therefore,when Jiuzhaigou adopts strategies,the repair of core attractions is its focus,while the focus of marketing is to adopt information strategies such as active advertising promotion to fully enhance the visibility of scenic spots and the safety perception of tourists.Relatively speaking,in terms of price reduction strategies,managers can consider their operating costs and adopt appropriate price reduction,which can not be regarded as the strategic focus of disaster recovery.For Huanglong scenic spot,the effect of price strategies with different intensity on its market share promotion is also not significantly different,and the effect of different information strategies on its market share promotion is significant.Therefore,the marketing focus of Huanglong scenic spot after the earthquake is to establish brand,fully enhance its security perception popularity,and adopt appropriate price reduction strategies to restore tourist market and develop tourism.The results of this study provide directional suggestions for the recovery strategy of tourists after the earthquake,and provide a new research idea for the study of the recovery strategy of tourists after the earthquake.