Research On Shaanxi GDP Prediction Based On The Pixel Scale Of Night Light Data

Since the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan,the economic development level of Shaanxi Province has been rising steadily and gradually getting better.With the introduction of "The Belt and Road" economic development plan,Planning of Guanzhong urban agglomeration and other policies,Shaanxi Province's economic development has ushered in a major development opportunity.But in the future Shaanxi Province economic development process,its overall economic development situation?Whether the regional difference of economic development in Shaanxi Province will be improved or not remains unanswered.Expect in Shaanxi Province to seize the historical opportunity to realize the economic great-leap-forward development,effective strategy is to scientifically forecast and analysis on the economic development in Shaanxi Province in the future,to grasp the general characteristics of future economic development in Shaanxi Province,and explore the possible problems in the process of economic development,in order to for government agencies and related units in accordance with characteristics of Shaanxi economy development to provide scientific basis for related economic policy.Based on nighttime lighting data and population density data,the county GDP output value of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2013 was decomposed by pixel-based scale of nighttime light data to form 14 time-continuous Shaanxi GDP time series grids.The grid map is then based on the theory and method of the time series model and substituted into the constructed prediction model to predict the GDP growth and distribution of Shaanxi Province from 2014 to 2020,and the results based on the model prediction will be statistically calculated.Analyze the overall characteristics and trends of economic development in Shaanxi Province in the future,and compare the differences in GDP production potential of various regions in Shaanxi Province from 2014 to 2020,in order to provide auxiliary basis for Shaanxi's economic development policies and planning.After the model prediction and empirical research,the study draws the following conclusions:(1)In the application research of nighttime lighting data,the use of Worldpop population density data can effectively improve the pixel saturation of DMSP/OLS nighttime lighting data.The mutual correction of nighttime light data based on the invariable target area method can greatly improve the problem of large fluctuations in the DN value of nighttime light data between different years of different sensors,but the nighttime light data is not effective in the saturation of the pixel in the central area of the city.The mitigation,WorldPop population density data raster data combined with nighttime lighting data,the problem of saturation of pixel values is solved,based on the pixel-by-pixel decomposition and prediction of county GDP data in Shaanxi Province,can be more obvious Reflecting the spatial characteristics of urban and rural areas and urban central areas;(2)In the process of GDP-based pixel prediction in Shaanxi Province,the quadratic exponential smoothing model is superior to the ARIMA model in terms of prediction accuracy and stability.When using the time series model to predict the GDP of Shaanxi Province,this study uses the ARIMA model commonly used in economics to predict relevant economic indicators and the second exponential smoothing model based on the moving weighting method,and predicts the two models.The results were verified by accuracy.It was found that the accuracy and stability of Shaanxi GDP prediction based on quadratic exponential smoothing model were higher.(3)The statistical analysis of the GDP raster map of Shaanxi Province from 2017 to 2020 based on the quadratic exponential smoothing model shows that the future economic growth of Shaanxi Province is stable and the GDP growth rate is stable at around 7%.From 2017 to 2020,the economic development momentum of various cities in Shaanxi Province is good.The total GDP growth of each city in the future is generally more than 20%.The total GDP growth of some counties in Baoji,Xianyang and Ankang is higher than 30%.However,Wuqi County,Dingbian County,Fugu County,Ansai County,and Zhidan County in Yulin and Yan'an have gradually lost their past styles,and GDP growth in the next four years is generally less than 20%.(4)The Guanzhong area in Shaanxi Province has the largest potential for GDP production and the southern Shaanxi region.In addition to a small part of the northern Shaanxi region,its GDP space production potential is generally small.Based on the GDP prediction grid images of 2014 and 2020,this study calculates the gross map of GDP growth in Shaanxi Province from 2014 to 2020,and calculates the GDP space production in the provincial and county scales of Shaanxi Province through regional statistics.Potential,found that:in the central areas of Xi'an,Baoji,Xianyang and other areas in Guanzhong,the total GDP generated by a single grid unit between 2014 and 2020 is more than 200 million yuan;the southern Shaanxi area is in Hanzhong,Ankang and Shangluo.In the scope,most of the counties and cities have a grid of GDP growth of more than 200 million yuan in the past seven years.In contrast,in northern Shaanxi,there are GDP growth in small areas such as Yuyang District,Shenmu County,and Luochuan County.In addition to the grid with a total volume of more than 200 million yuan,most of the rest of the region's GDP growth in the past seven years is within 100 million yuan.