Study On The Impact Of Housing Price On Resident Consumption In Anhui Province

Housing has both the attributions of consumer and investment goods,has the characteristics of high value and high cost,and is an important part of residents'wealth.In economic society,residents influence their own income level through the market means such as renting and investing in housing.In the macro consumption theory,the wealth level and income level of residents are the key factors affecting the consumption of residents.Therefore,the impact of housing price on the consumption of residents is a subject worthy of attention.In view of the influence of consumption culture,consumption environment and other regions,the author orientates the research region in Anhui Province.At present,the average housing price in Anhui Province has maintained a stable upward trend,but the consumption rate of residents in Anhui Province has shown a downward trend,which has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life in Anhui Province.Therefore,a correct understanding of the relationship between housing price and consumption will not only promote the sustainable and healthy development of housing market,but also help to solve the problem of the continuous decline of consumption rate in Anhui Province.In the previous research literature,scholars defined wealth effect as the phenomenon that the change of housing price causes the change of the consumption of residents in the same direction,and crowding-out effect as the phenomenon that the change of housing price causes the consumption of residents in the reverse direction.According to different research objects,empirical samples and empirical methods,scholars come to the conclusion of how housing price affects residents' consumption under their own research background.However,in the previous studies,scholars basically based on the macro consumption theory,did not use the micro consumption theory to discuss,so there is no corresponding micro analysis;secondly,Scholars seldom consider that the absolute level of housing price has different significance to the consumption decision-making of residents with different income levels.In order to make up for the weakness of the previous research,the author starts with the micro consumption theory,analyzes the substitution effect and income effect of housing price on the residents' consumption under the dual effect,and revises the housing price through the residents' disposable income to show the housing price with consumption decision-making significance faced by the residents.In the micro perspective,taking the rise in housing price as an example,the author considers the impact of the rise in housing price on the budget constraint line of residents under the wealth effect and crowding-out effect,and analyses the changes of consumption quantities of other non-housing commodity portfolios for residents at utility equilibrium points under different conditions,and draws the following conclusions:first,the rise in housing price can promote the consumption of residents through substitution effect.Secondly,the wealth effect of housing promotes the consumption of residents by generating positive income effect,while the crowding-out effect inhibits the consumption of residents by generating negative income effect.In the macro perspective,the author takes the housing price as the impact source,and studies how to affect the consumption of residents through the absolute income consumption theory,the relative income consumption theory and the life cycle consumption theory.Then,using the data of Anhui housing market and the consumption of residents over the years,the author analyzes the current situation of the investment in Anhui housing market and the consumption of residents,and makes a preliminary comparative analysis of the two combined with the disposable income of residents.On the basis of micro and macro perspectives,the author divides the residents into those who own housing and those who do not have housing,modifies the housing price with their disposable income,derives the U-shaped relationship between the consumption of residents and the revised housing price through theoretical deduction,and constructs the panel data of Anhui Province with different cities as the cross-section and the time span of 2011-2017 to conduct an empirical test.the author realizes the unification of consumption theory,empirical test and realistic analysis,and draws the following conclusions:Firstly,considering the housing price only,there is a quadratic function relationship between resident consumption and housing price.According to historical data,housing prices have been rising,showing crowding-out effect on resident consumption,and then wealth effect.This trend of social fluctuation will first reduce the consumption of residents,and then promote the consumption of residents in general,but at this time,for residents with low income level,it may not necessarily increase the consumption of such residents.If there is a situation to promote the consumption of such residents,it is also on the basis of the gradual abandonment of housing consumption needs of such residents,which will lead to the social dissatisfaction with the gap between the rich and the poor,and is not conducive to social harmony.Secondly,considering the impact of resident income,the relationship between resident consumption and revised housing price also presents quadratic function.According to historical data,although the revised housing prices faced by most residents show a decreasing trend,they still sometimes show an increasing trend.When the revised housing prices faced by residents grow from large to small,they first show crowding-out effect on resident consumption and then show wealth effect.When the revised housing prices faced by residents grow from small to large,they also show crowding-out effect first and then wealth effect on resident consumption.According to the author's analysis,the former is a better choice than the latter.Thirdly,the impact of resident income on resident consumption can be divided into two aspects:on the one hand,it has an impact on resident consumption alone,and on the other hand,it has an impact on resident consumption by converting housing price into revised housing price.Finally,the author puts forward some policy suggestions based on the research results.