Study On The Spatial Distribution And Influencing Factors Of Urban Shrinkage In Northeast China

From the experience of Western countries,it can be seen that there will inevitably be a major adjustment in the industrial structure when the city develops to a certain stage.In some cities,there has been a phenomenon of corporate migration and the migration of urban middle class to suburban areas.House prices in urban centers have fallen and attracted a large number of poor people.The economic and environmental degradation of the city center has accelerated the pace of migration.This series of effects has caused a vicious circle of city shrink.With the rapid development of China's industrialization,resource-based cities in the early days of the founding of the country have experienced problems such as the destruction of the natural environment,lack of resources,solid economic structure,difficulties in industrial adjustment,and large capital and population outflows.The northeast region is home to many important resource-based cities in China and is known as the "The birthplace of Chinese industry".However,since the 1990s,there have been a large number of employee unemployment and business closures in the Northeast.Although the Northeast revitalization strategy has promoted the social and economic development of the Northeast region within a certain period of time.However,due to changes in the external environment,the economic development of cities in the Northeast has once again gone downhill,with nearly a million people flowing out each year.Therefore,studying the distribution and dynamic changes of shrinking cities in the northeast can provide an important reference for the development of sustainable development planning for shrinking cities in the "new normal".This paper uses the adjusted 2001-2016 population data to identify whether cities in the Northeast are shrinking cities.The study found that during the inspection period,Northeast China had already experienced city shrink in 2003.In 2012,cities at all levels began to show rapid decline in the number and shrinkage of shrinking cities.Among the three provinces,Heilongjiang has the highest proportion of shrinking cities and the average degree of shrinkage.Cities with different administrative levels show differences in shrinking characteristics,and the number and shrinkage of county-level cities are significantly higher than those of the other two levels.According to the Global Moran's I,there is a spatial positive correlation between city shrinkage in Northeast China,and there is agglomeration in the distribution of shrinking cities.The LISA map drawn from the AnselinLocal Moran's I is used to analyze the distribution characteristics and migration of different types of cities,and once again proves that there is a good spatial positive correlation between the shrinking cities in Northeast China.In the study of the factors influencing the formation of shrinking cities in Northeast China,this paper analyzes the factors such as economic environment,industrial structure,location conditions,social environment and culture.The factors affecting the formation of shrinking cities are complex.In order to better analyze the influence of factors on city shrinkage,this paper uses logistic regression analysis method to quantify the influencing factors of shrinking cities.In general,the causes of shrinking cities in the Northeast China are very complicated.Factors such as economic base,industrial structure,social development level,culture and policies have had a significant impact on city shrinkage.Logistic regression results show that economic development and social environmental factors have a greater impact on the shrinking cities in Northeast China.In addition,this paper analyzes the strategy of urban shrinkage,and proposes planning suggestions for urban shrinkage in Northeast China from three perspectives:macro-policy formulation,meso-industrial structure adjustment and micro-local planning.In terms of policy formulation,the government must simplify administration and decentralize authority,fully stimulate market vitality,and create a good market investment environment.The city also needs to actively shape the open investment environment based on the national strategy and the city's own policy.In terms of industrial structure,cities should increase investment in service industry to ensure service performance.Enrich the diversity of the industry to avoid the fragile economic environment caused by a single industrial structure.In the process of restructuring the industrial system in the Northeast China,it is necessary to make overall arrangements for the division of functions carried by each city to achieve the maximum positive externalities of the regional economy.In terms of local planning,the city must control the scale of land use and avoid the infinite expansion of the city.For the abandoned land and vacant land already existing in the city,ecological reconstruction or land bank can be implemented.Improve urban vitality by advocating a healthy and green lifestyle,improving urban culture,improving residents' health and establishing a harmonious and stable social environment,and continuously improving urban infrastructure to meet the needs of residents.