Analysis Of Urban Shrinkage Spatial Pattern And Its Influencing Factors In Northeast China

Expansion and contraction are important forms of urban life cycle.Affected by changes in industrial structure and population structure,the rapid urbanization process triggered by industrialization is facing obstacles,more and more cities are caught in the dilemma of economic downturn and population loss.In China,the rapid development of urbanization has accelerated the flow of production factors,which leads to the coexistence of two contradictory situations: one is that some cities enhance their agglomeration capacity and expand rapidly,while the other is that they lose more and gradually shrink.The emergence of shrinkage not only exposed the hidden problems in the process of urbanization in China,but also posed challenges to the future development of cities.Therefore,the study of urban shrinkage can not only dynamically grasp the current urban spatial structure,but also help to face the urban development problems,and provide new thinking for the rational distribution of production factors and the adjustment of urban spatial structure.In this paper,the theories and literatures related to urban shrinkage are systematically sorted out,the formation mechanism of urban shrinkage is deeply analyzed from three aspects: factor aggregation and diffusion effect,spatial sorting and selection effect,and policy incentive and inhibition effect.Then,the population density index is used to construct the urban shrinkage degree,measuring the contraction status of 34 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China,and analyzing the spatial distribution and social development characteristics of the shrinking cities.Finally,in the contraction of Northeast city influence factors on the basis of qualitative analysis,selecting indicators from economic development,industrial structure,investment scale,labor wages and policy,using the fixed effects model to build urban shrinkage factors affecting empirical model,analyzing the quantitative results and putting forward corresponding suggestions.Under the condition that the regional basic conditions are established,the existence and changes of factor agglomeration and diffusion effect,spatial sorting and selection effect,policy incentives and inhibition effect are important influence path for the birth of urban shrinkage,the formation and development of shrinking cities,the evolution of regional spatial structure.The study found that since 2000,the shrinking phenomenon of cities in the Northeast has become increasingly apparent.Characterized by low economic development level,slow industrial structure adjustment and severe population aging,shrinking cities are generally showing an upward trend in number.In the spatial distribution,it shows a trend of evolution from scattered to concentrated contiguous patches and has obvious "edge contraction" characteristics.The empirical results of influencing factors show that the main reasons for the urban shrinkage in Northeast China are the slow adjustment of industrial structure,the insufficient development of tertiary industry,the relatively low wage level,the insufficient ability of investment promotion and the inconspicuous policy effect.In view of the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as correctly understanding urban shrinkage,strengthening urban division of labor and cooperation,realizing industrial complementarity,and improving urban service capacity.