A Study On Space-Time Evolution,Influencing Factors And Countermeasures Of Urban Shrinkage In Chongqing

With the global decline in industries and the premature arrival of the Lewis turning point for China’s labor force,the exacerbation of polarization trends during the urbanization process has resulted in partial contraction within the Chinese economy despite its rapid development.Manifesting in changes to population structure,economic factors,and social system transitions,the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has begun to emerge.Chongqing,characterized as a representative dualistic urban-rural city with a "large city + large countryside" mechanism,not only faces population-related challenges but also grapples with the imperative of achieving high-quality development by embracing a shrinking urban model.This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in Chongqing,while providing strategic recommendations by comparing the phenomenon with select domestic and international cities experiencing similar shrinkage phenomena.Initially,an extensive review and critical analysis of relevant literature will be conducted.Subsequently,the urban development index,urban shrinkage degree,and multidimensional shrinkage degree will be measured using population,economic,and social indicators.Through this analysis,the fundamental patterns underlying the spatiotemporal evolution of urban shrinkage in Chongqing Municipality will be discerned.Furthermore,methodologies such as Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA),coupled coordination models,and panel data regression models will be employed to explore the influencing factors of multidimensional shrinkage in Chongqing.Additionally,a multiple logistic regression model will be utilized to investigate the influencing factors of population shrinkage.By comparing Chongqing Municipality with other cities within the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,the Yangtze River Delta region,as well as selected cities in the United States and Japan,the specific challenges of urban shrinkage in Chongqing will be identified.Drawing upon the findings,theoretical foundations,and local context,this study will propose effective countermeasures and strategic recommendations to address urban shrinkage in Chongqing.The key findings of this study are as follows:Firstly,the urban development index of the "core district" in Chongqing Municipality demonstrates a notable superiority over the "two groups" districts.Shrinking districts accounted for 55.26%,36.84%,and 47.37% of the total districts during the periods 2010-2014,2015-2019,and 2010-2019,respectively.Among the various dimensions of shrinkage,population shrinkage,population-economic shrinkage,and population-social shrinkage are more likely to occur,particularly in non-central urban areas.The proportion of shrinking towns(districts)in Chongqing Municipality accounts for 74.05%(34.21%)of the total towns(districts),predominantly driven by relative population shrinkage.Spatially,positive correlation is observed among the districts in Chongqing Municipality,and shrinkage in districts is primarily influenced by factors such as population age structure,urbanization level,fiscal revenue and expenditure,and industrial structure.Moreover,significant factors influencing population shrinkage in Chongqing Municipality include economic factors,industrial structure,public services and infrastructure,government investment scale,and the level of economic health.Secondly,in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,Chongqing Municipality exhibits a significantly higher urban development index compared to Chengdu City and other cities.Shrinkage cities accounted for 43.75%,43.75%,and 56.25% of the total cities during the periods 2010-2014,2015-2019,and 2010-2019,respectively.The economic dimension and population-economic dimension shrinkage are more likely to occur in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,particularly during the period of2010-2014.There is a negative correlation in the spatial distribution within the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,and the shrinkage of cities is mainly influenced by factors such as the number of employed personnel,industrial structure,and urban construction.Thirdly,compared with other domestic cities such as those in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle,the Yangtze River Delta region,and selected foreign cities in the United States and Japan,Chongqing City has different levels of town development and regional characteristics,leading to diverse causes and patterns of shrinkage.Generally,the main cause of urban shrinkage in domestic cities is related to "population" issues,such as population outflow,aging population,and employment problems.On the other hand,the main causes of urban shrinkage in foreign cities are "population and spatial configuration" issues,including low birth rates,population decline,housing vacancies,globalization,and deindustrialization.Fourth,in response to urban shrinkage,countermeasures should consider the analysis of shrinkage status in the dimensions of population,economy,and society,as well as the overall urban development situation.It is recommended to improve policies related to fertility and child-rearing,reducing the burden of dependent population.Furthermore,the implementation of the "Belt and Road" development initiative and the expansion of the job market can support rural industrial development.Finally,optimizing public infrastructure services and configurations,establishing a sound public service system,and strengthening social security efforts are also suggested.