A Study On The Impact Of Technical Barriers To Trade On The Dual Margins Of China's Exports

Since the financial crisis in 2008,with the development of trade facilitation,tariff barriers have gradually decreased,and non-tariff barriers have become the main trade protection policy tools.In addition,under the condition that quota,anti-dumping,anti-countervailing and other traditional non-tariff barriers are strictly controlled by WTO,technical barriers to trade are more and more favored by countries because of their strong concealment,pertinence and flexibility,and become an important policy tool and means for countries to carry out trade protection.According to WTO statistics,a total of 389 TBT notifications were submitted by WTO members in 1995,and in 2016,the number of TBT notifications reached 2336,an increase of 500.51%.With the development of economy,China has become the largest export country,but it is followed by the frequent occurrence of foreign technical barriers to trade.Since 2011,China has encountered more and more foreign technical barriers to trade.Between 2011 and 2015,the anount of direct losses suffered by China's exports due to technical barriers to trade has increased from 62.26 billion US dollars to 93.38 billion US dollars,with a growth rate of 50 percent.According to statistics,40%of China's export enterprises encountered technical barriers to trade set up by other countries in foreign trade in 2015,accounting for 4.1%of total exports in the whole year.According to the survey of China,s Annual report on Technical Trade measures,since 2005,technical barriers to trade have been in the top three of the main obstacles faced by export enterprises,far exceeding the impact of anti-dumping,anti-subsidy,quota and licenses on enterprises,exports.At present,technical trade barriers have become one of the major obstacles to China,s export trade.In this context,it is of great practical significance to analyze the effect of technical trade barriers on the export of China.However,the traditional empirical research on the impact of technical barriers to trade is mainly carried out in combination with the gravity model,assuming that trade barriers,economic scale,geographical distance and otiher factors have an impact on bilateral trade,but these studies are mainly based on intra-industry trade theory,under the assumption of enterprise homogeneity,and only focus on the impact of technical barriers to trade on the total amount of exports,which neglecting the impact of the increase in trade costs caused by trade barriers on the types of export products.In fact,the new-new trade theory points out that the total amount of trade can be divided into intensive margin and extensive nargin.The trade grows along both the intensive margin and extensive margin.According to the binary marginal theory,it can be extended that when the trade cost increases,the total amount of trade will change under the combined action of intensive margin and extended nargin.This paper analyzes the influence of technical barriers to trade on the dual margins of China's export by combining theory and demonstration.The main contents are divided into six parts:Chapter one is the introduction.It describes the background and significance of the topic,the research ideas and methods,the related literature of technical barriers to trade and trade margin,and the innovation and deficiency.Chapter two mainly includes the relational concepts,the theoretical basis and influence mechanism.lt mainly introduces the definition,characteristic,the function mechanism of technical barriers to trade on export trade and the connotation of dual margins,and analyzes the relevant trade theory and its applicability.Chapter three is the present situation of China's export trade and the analysis of the situation of technical barriers to trade in China's exports in terms of total quantity and structure.Firstly,analyzing the growth status from aspects of export scale,export structure and target market.The results show that China's export trade volume is growing on the whole,but the growth rate is slowing down;exports are mainly concentrated in the electromechanical instrument,textile shoes and hats,and mineral and metals industries;the export markets are too concentrated,mainly in the EU,the United States and Japan.Then it analyzes the situation that China's exports encounter foreign technical barriers to trade.The results show that from the national level,the technical barriers to trade set up by the European Union,the United States and Japan have the greatest impact on China's exports;from the perspective of industry,technical barriers to trade set up by major trading countries have the greatest impact on China's mechanical and electrical equipment industry,followed by mineral metals,agricultural food products and textile shoes and hats industries,while the impact on toy and furniture,rubber and plastic leather,wood,paper and non-metallic industries is relatively small.Chapter four is the dual marginal measurement and analysis of China's export growth.It mainly introduces the selection of binary marginal measurement method and examines the dual margins of China's export from three aspects:the world,the main trading partner countries and various industries.The conclusion shows that the growth of China's export is mainly driven by intensive margin,and the contribution of extensive margin to export growth is limited.Chapter five uses extended gravity model to make an empirical study on the effect of the technical barriers to trade on the dual margins of China's export,and the group(national groups and industry categories)is tested.The empirical results show that the technical barriers to trade have a significant effect on China's export trade and have an inhibitory effect on both the extensive margin and the intensive margin.The effect of the technical barriers to trade set up by the developed countries on China's export trade is greater than that of the developing countries.The influence of technical barriers to trade on the dual margins of Chinese exports is also different among different industries.Chapter six is divided into full-text conclusions and corresponding policy suggestions from the government and the enterprise level.The innovation of this paper lies in:first,in the aspect of research object,most of the previous studies on how technical barrers to trade affect the dual margins of China's exports are based on the export volume of the whole or specific products.From the point of view of industry,this paper decomposes the export trade volume of industries based on the HS2 code in China by dual marginal decomposition,which can well map the influence of technical barriers to trade on specific industries,which can provide more practical and concrete countermeasures for export enterprises in the corresponding industries to deal with technical barriers to trade.Second,in the selection of dual marginal factors,we not only consider the impact of importing countries' technical barriers to trade on China,s export trades but also compare and analyze the impact of importing countries' technical barriers to trade and importing countries' tariff factors.