China's Export Efficiency And Its Determinants:Evidence From Trade In Value Added

Trade efficiency in an important index to measure the development of a country's international trade.And it has theoretical support and practical significance in guiding the progress of trade in the future and the formulation of related foreign policies.In view of the great contribution of export to China's economic growth,the paper will mainly calculate the evolution trend of China's export efficiency and analyze it's influential factors.In recent years,the rise of "global value chain" has attracted seriously challenge about the reliability of the traditional custom statistical trade data by the academic community,and then the theoretical and empirical analysis according to the data will lead to some errors.The proposed calculation method of value added trade has gradually replaced the custom statistical data because it can effectively restore the true profit of a country's export,and it has become an important data resource for reassessing trade issues.Therefore,the emergence of global value chains prompts us to reassess Chinese exports' efficiency and its growth potential in the value added content of trade.Based on review,this paper firstly calculates the bilateral export data for 39 sample countries from 1995 to 2011 using the World Input-Output Table(WIOT),and then performs a statistical analysis about China's export data in value added.The results imply that:During 1995?2011,the customs trade statistics of China's export witnesses a 33.68%overestimation on the average.And since China has joined in WTO in 2001,the overestimation faced a upward trend.The average overestimation percentage varies from 20.62%in 1995?2000 to 35.66%in 2001?2011.Therefore,it is of great importance to recalculate China's export efficiency from the perspective of trade in value added.And the calculation and analysis of China's rate of intermediate trade&value-added have proved the necessity of calculating China's export efficiency from the perspective of value-added again.Next this paper uses the calculated data and the stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate China's export efficiency and it's determinants.And then this paper studies the heterogeneity in different industries that based on the investigation of trade efficiency.The empirical results show that;The per capital GDP and population are main factors that will promote export in value added,and the bilateral geographic distance will play a important role in limiting the development of trade.Limited by the selection range of sample countries,the factor that the partners share a common geographic border will significantly promote the export in value added.But the influence of different factors on different industries varies a lot.Through the calculation of trade efficiency,this paper finds that:China's export efficiency varies from 0.50 to 0.60,which means that China still has plenty of export potential.However,China's export efficiency varies across sectors,especially the value for non-manufacture sector reaches about 0.90,the value for manufacture sector is close to that for aggregate export,the value for both agriculture,forestry and fishing sector and service sector are significantly lower than that for aggregate export.In addition,by comparing the export efficiency,the results reveal that:China's export efficiency has reached the average level of world,and it is much higher in developing countries than that in developed countries,and it faces a certain promotion after China joined in WTO.The non efficiency of trade reflects the overall restriction on trade of trade restrict rants.This paper performs a non efficiency model about China's export in value added through the "two steps" method to exploit the determinants of China's export efficiency.The regression results reveal that:Trade effects of traditional trade constraints are gradually weakening,and factors(such as political democracy and trade freedom)that generally represent the trading environment are becoming the decisive factors.Finally,the paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions:the understanding and analysis of trade should be given more objective evaluation from the perspective of value added.China's export of value added should be focused on agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,manufacture and service industries that have huge potential.In order to promote China's export efficiency in value added,it is necessary to weaken the influence of traditional trade constraints and highlight the promotion of trade and economic freedom to trade oppositely.