Study On The Decomposition Of Bilateral Export Trade And Empirical Application

Since China joined the WTO in 2001,it has taken an active part in the international division of labor with the advantage of labor cost.However,different countries in global value chain participate in specific production stage and profit in their corresponding production stage,using gross trade statistics to measure a country's total export scale,will result in gap between trade volume and real profitability,the statistics method of added value of trade to restore the real trade scale and position in the global value chain.The decomposition of value added in trade is an important content of value-added trade accounting.The existing research has not formed a consistent standard for the separation of foreign value added and double counting in export,but the processing ideas involved in the newer studies can indeed provide convenience to solve specific problems.Therefore,based on the research of Koopman et al.(2014),Wang et al.(2013)and the Nagengast and Stehrer(2016)research,this article constructed a bilateral sector-level export decomposition model,the idea of decomposing the double counted part in export based on the source area of added value proposed by Nagengast and Stehrer(2016)is adopted to reclassify the double counted part and the added value in export.In terms of empirical application,the first part is the analysis of the decomposition results of China's exports to different trading partners,the comparative analysis of China's export structure of labor-intensive,capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive manufacturing and service industries to the United States,countries along the "the Belt and Road" and other regions or countries in the world.In the second part,the traditional explicit comparative advantage index of industries is revised based on the added value of trade,the explicit comparative advantage and change trend of different industries in China are analyzed,and the export competitiveness of knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry is compared at the world level.In the third part,a panel model is established to analyze the influencing factors of value-added rate of China's manufacturing export from the aspects of technical factors,foreign capital,production factors,energy use and comparative advantage.In this paper,the domestic added value in export is further decomposed into DVA1,the domestic added value of intermediate product export participating in the production of shallow value chain and deep value chain,at the same time,the foreign part of the export is accurately decomposed.It is found that the domestic added value of a country's exports to a specific trading partner can be divided into direct added value exports,indirect added value exports to other countries and domestic added value reflux.The foreign added value in export is the indirect added value export of the upstream direct trading countries,which corresponds to the added value participating in the deep value chain production in the export of the corresponding countries.The double counting of the domestic and foreign added value are derived from the indirect export process.Although there is no consistent conclusion on the double counting part in export,the decomposition in this paper achieves a consistency of internal logic for the division between the internal and foreign part in exports,and has an accurate correspondence with the correct decomposition part in the existing research,it is the innovation of this paper on the basis of the existing research.The empirical analysis results of this paper are as follows: first,the domestic value-added in China's total export is relatively stable,accounting for more than 80%,far higher than the foreign value added in the export;In general,the exports of final products and mature intermediate products are the main form of value-added transmission.domestic value-added rate of China's manufacturing industry exports to the United States,along "the Belt and Road" and other regions of the world are more consistent,the difference in service industry is obvious.From the perspective of different types of industries,the domestic value-added rate of China's labor-intensive manufacturing and knowledge-intensive manufacturing exports has been increasing since 2008,while the domestic value-added rate of capital-intensive manufacturing exports has been decreasing,the value-added rate of export of knowledge-intensive service industries is rising.Second,from the perspective of added value of trade,China's manufacturing industry has a significant comparative advantage,the international competitiveness of knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry is gradually enhanced,and the overall advantage of the service industry is weak.From the perspective of the world,the competitive advantages of the knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry vary greatly,and China's knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry has a high international status.Thirdly,the analysis of the influencing factors of China's export value-added rate shows that technological innovation,foreign capital inflow,capital stock level,energy efficiency and the heterogeneity of comparative advantage are important factors affecting the profitability of China's manufacturing export trade.