The Simulation Of The Ecological Land Change Based On CLUE-S And Markov Model

Under the background of constructiing the ecological civilization,it is a a hot issue to explore the land use pattern of regional ecological security in the field of land use/cover change(LUCC).Ecological land,which is the land dominated by ecological functions such as conservation and support,is the foundation for human survival and development.It is of great significance to explore the evolution and simulation of ecological land use,to optimize the use of ecological land,to maintain the regional ecological balance,and promote the sustainable economic and social development.This study takes Yixing City as an example,which is a rapid development of urbanization in the southern part of Jiangsu and also an ecologically sensitive area in Taihu Lake.It uesed the current data of landuse in 2010 and 2015.From the perspective of ecological landuse,the principles and methods of ecology,statistics,and geography are applied comprehensively.The characteristics and trends of ecological land types in Yixing City over the past five years have been explored to find the driving factors that affect the evolution of ecological land use.Based on the current status of ecological land use in 2010,CLUE-S model was used to forecast the pattern of ecological land use in 2015.The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing with the actual situation,and a kappa value of 0.942 was obtained.The simulation results show that the selected models and parameters are suitable for the ecological land use change simulation in the region and can be used to simulate the ecological land use pattern in Yixing City in 2020.The research content and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In this study,combined with existing studies on ecological land use,the land is dividedinto six categories:agricultural land,forestry land,grassland,wetland,other ecologicalland,and non-ecological land.Based on this classification system,I divide the land of Yixing City into six categories.The results show that about 80%of the land in Yixing City is ecological land.Among them,agricultural land and wetland ecological land are the most important types of ecological land in the area.From 2010 to 2015,the total ecological land area in Yixing City decreased from 158,927.34hm2 in 2010 to 157289.67hm2 in 2015.The corresponding non-ecological lands showed a slight expansion.(2)In this study,Arcmap is applied to extract and show distances from lakes,reservoirs,rivers,highways,railways,towns,elevation,slope,and aspect these 8 driving factors,under the three spatial resolutions of 30m×30m,50m×50m,and 100×100m.And then SPSS is applied to do Logistic regression analysis of six land use types and driving factors.Considering the operating efficiency and ROC of the CLUE-S model,50m × 50m is selected as the study scale of this paper.(3)Using the eco-land use map in 2010 as the initial state,the CLUE-S model was used to forecast the eco-land use scenario in 2015.The Kappa Coefficient was calculated to be 0.942 compared with the actual situation in 2015.The simulated accuracy of various ecological land types was high,indicating that this simulation results are pretty good.(4)Taking the status of ecological land in 2015 as the initial stage,set two scenarios of natural evolution and ecological land protection,and predict the ecological land use pattern of Yixing City in 2020:Under the natural evolution scenario,the total area of ecological land in 2020 will be 155,680.13 hm2.Compared with 2015,it decrease by 1609.54hm2,which is 3,247.21hm2 compared to 2010.Under the ecological land protection scenario,the total area of ecological land used in 2020 will be 155,916.29hm2,which is 236.16hm2 more than natural evolution scenarios.