Research On The Regional Difference Of The Effect Of Interest Rate On Real Estate Price

1998 was regarded as the first year of China's real estate reform.At this year,China ended the welfare housing system and began the housing commercialization system.Since then,due to the joint influence of the relatively complete financial system and the increasing residents' disposable income,real estate has experienced a thriving "golden decade".However,some exposed problems also need to be resolved.Such as the uneven development of regional real estate markets,house prices that higher than people can afford and bubbles which may cause a great threat to financial system,etc.As far as we know,interest rate,which is considered to be a price-based monetary policy tool that can effectively adjust the supply and demand of funds,also turn out to be a good way to regulate the house prices.Considering that the real estate market is a regional market,only when we take regional difference into account can we more accurately recognize the transmission mechanism and implement measures according to local conditions.The writing arrangement of this paper is as follows.Firstly,the author set up a brief overview of how interest rate policy regulated the real estate market from 1998 to 2019.Then,the author generalized the current situation of China's real estate market and made a comparative analysis in Shanghai and Shenzhen.The conclusion can be summarized as the impact of interest rates on housing prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen has regional differences.Secondly,from a theoretical perspective,the author explored the causes of regional differences.Due to the differences in the scale of financial institution,the development level of the currency market,the regulatory capacity of the government and the difference of demand structure between the two cities,the real estate market in Shanghai and Shenzhen will weaken the unified interest rate policy regulation effectiveness and show regional heterogeneity.Thirdly,the author quantified specific data from the perspective of empirical research and obtained empirical conclusions.Based on a total of 56 sets of data from first quarter of 2006 to fourth quarter of 2019,the following conclusions are as followed:(1)In terms of the effectiveness of regulation,the interest rate policy has a more significant impact on the real estate prices in Shenzhen than in Shanghai.(2)Asfar as influencing factors,the effect of interest rate indicators on the real estate prices in Shenzhen is significantly different from that in Shanghai.(3)Considering lag,Shenzhen's response period is shorter than that of Shanghai.Finally,the author put forward some feasibility suggestions.For instance,improve the differential pricing mechanism for housing interest rates,broaden diversified financing channels for housing companies,establish cities-communities to promote interregional mobility,last but not the least,it cannot be overemphasized that strengthen market supervision to guide the development of the real estate market.