An Empirical Analysis On Disposable Income And Consumption Structure Of Urban Residents In Shandong Province

With the progress of China's opening policy,the economy of Shandong province has achieved all-round development,and the life quality of the people has been continuously improved.Using the theories in time series analysis and multivariate statistical analysis,this paper analyzes the data of per capita disposable income and consumer spending in Shandong Province from 1984 to 2017,and then compares the consumption structure with the non-parametric methods to draw the final conclusion.The first is to use the Eviews to carry out cointegration test,then the long-term equilibrium relations between disposable income and consumer spending is confirmed;The following is to build a ECM model and to carry out Granger causality.It is concluded that the income affects consumption,and the increase of residents' income can promote consumption level.Next to build the ARMA model,and we can predict the income and consumption of urban residents in 2018 and 2019.Then compares with the data released by Shandong Bureau of Statistics,it can be concluded that the relative error is small,indicating that the fitting effect is better.The second is to use SPSS to research the consumption structure of 17 cities in Shandong Province.According to the eight data indexes of consumption expenditure,we obtain two factors affecting the consumption structure through factor analysis,and the comprehensive scores of the factors of each city are calculated.On this basis,the consumption structure of urban residents in 2015 to 2017 is compared by clustering method to find out the changes.Finally,the semi-parametric model is established by using the mixed estimation method,which combines least square method with weight function.Then obtaines the semi-parametric estimation value of each year and compares with the least square estimation values,the conclusion is that the semi-parametric model is more accurate.