The Study Of Spillover Effects Of Monetary Policy From China On The Belt And Road

Under the condition of open economy, with the deepening of economic globalization, that one country's monetary policy shaking leads to other countries' economy become increasingly intense. Since the word financial crisis out broke in 2008, the structure of word economy has been changing dramatically, China put forward Belt and Road development strategy on this occasion, which gets a positive response from all the country included the Belt and Road area, and promotes to regional economic development. The Belt and Road starts to build in 2015, at the same time, the study of spillover effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Belt and Road is a great significance.Based on learning a large number of literature, first of all this paper briefly introduces the countries' economy and the trade situation between China and all counties in the Belt and Road; and then I analyzed the spillover effects of Chinese monetary policy by MF model and New Open Economy Macroeconomics model; then relatively reasonable selection of eight countries such as Iran, India as the empirical sample countries, establishing SVAR model, using the impulse response function and variance decomposition tests the spillover effects of Chinese quantitative monetary policy and price-based monetary policy on the sample countries. Through the analysis of impulse response function and variance decomposition, we can conclude that: there are spillover effects from Chinese monetary policy on the Belt and Road, but the spillover effects are different in different national economies; The spillover effects of price-based monetary policy are stronger than that of quantitative monetary policy; overflow Chinese monetary policy on output effect is relatively strong, the spillover effect of the unemployment rate is relatively weak; spillover effects of China's monetary policy on Germany is relatively small, developing countries and neighboring countries a greater spillover effects. Finally, along with the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative promoting, from the international coordination, China's financial reform, international financial and economic cooperation, the internationalization of the RMB, foreign investment and cooperation with developed economies in six aspects put forward relevantly policy recommendations.