Research On The Optimization Of China’s Milk Powder Import Layout Under The Background Of Global Milk Powder Trade Changes

In recent years,with the continuous development of economic globalization and the improvement of residents’ living standards,the demand for dairy products has increased dramatically.According to the United Nations Trade Statistics Database,from 1992 to 2018,the trade volume of dairy products increased from 14.133 million tons to 70.11 million tons,with an average annual growth rate of 6.4%.Milk powder is an important trade dairy product.During the same period,the trade volume of milk powder increased by 2.5 times.China is a big importer of milk powder.With the aging of the population,the narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural areas,and the introduction of policies such as the "Student Milk Program",there is still huge consumption potential in the milk powder market of China,however,compared with foreign milk powder,domestic milk powder is less competitive in terms of quality and price,and there is a possibility that China’s milk powder imports will continue to grow.In order to increase China ’s milk supply rate and the overall production capacity of the dairy industry,and enhance international competitiveness,it is necessary to fully understand the evolution of the global trade pattern of milk powder and the changes in market structure,and then explore the changes in import pattern,import market structure and import sources of milk powder in China under this background,and the relative policy suggestions about the optimination of import patterm of milk powder are also put forward.Based on this,from the global perspective,this article explores the evolution of the global trade pattern of dairy product based on the dairy product trade data from 1998 to 2018,and uses the market concentration index to analyze the structure of export and import market of dairy products.Secondly,this paper conducted a detail analysis about the evolution of the global trade pattern of milk powder,and also analyzed the export and import market structure of milk powder using the same market concentration index.China is a big importer of milk powder,this paper further explores the changes in import volume,import market structure,distributions of import sources of milk powder in China under the global underground.Also,the ADF test and the Johansen co-integration test were used to test the unit root and the existence of co-integration relationship among the wholesale market prices in Europe,USA,Oceania and import prices in China.An error correction model(ECM)was established to find the short-term relationships for skimmed milk powder and whole milk powder price series.The main research conclusions of this article include:(1)The distribution of import and export sources of milk powder has obvious characteristics of concentration,and the ranking of the main importers and exporters of milk powder is relatively stable;(2)The import sources of milk powder in China are mainly concentrated in Oceania,and New Zealand,Australia are the main soures of milk powder imports from China.(3)The wholesale prices of skim milk powder in Oceania and Europenan Union have no significant impact on the import prices in China.The wholesale prices of skim milk powder in United States have a significant impact on the import prices of skim milk powder in China.The wholesale prices of whole milk powder in United States and Oceania,European Union have no significant effect on the import prices of whole milk powder in China.(4)In order to reduce the risk of milk powder imports in China,and optimize the import layout of milk powder,while increasing the self-sufficiency rate of domestic milk powder,it should appropriately increase the imports of milk powder from Argentina,Brazil and other countries.