| With the deepening of economic globalization,the increasing of consumer diversification and individuation demand,the product mix is richer and product life cycle is shorter.Therefore,the competition between enterprises based on low cost and large-scale previously is gradually transforming into the competition based on diversity and rapid response time.By integrating resources efficiently and effectively,process flexibility can ensure enterprises producing products in a very short time,which maintaining a competitive advantage for enterprises.How to complete flexible configuration to reduce the risk which is generated by demand uncertainty is the key study point of process flexibility.Presenting the background and current research situation,the thesis first puts forward the meaning and importance of risk research for the multi-stages and multi-products process flexibility.Then,based on related theories,the thesis constructs the risk model for multi-stages and multi-products process flexibility.By using Configuration Risk and Loss Risk,the thesis gives the measurement of multi-stages and multi-products process flexibility risk.According to the measure as well as numerical analysis and simulation,the thesis gives the methods of avoiding risks for multi-stages and multi-products process flexibility.Later on,the thesis also establishes the risk model considering flexible manufacturing costs and gives the applicable scope of the model.After the numerical simulation,there is the risk avoiding rules as well for the multi-stages and multi-products process flexibility considering flexible manufacturing costs.The last part of the thesis is the research conclusions and research outlook.The thesis study expands theory research scope.The risk avoiding methods through simulation can help enterprises to achieve more effective flexible operation,which has a certain practical significance. |