Research On The Impact Of Shandong Province Bank Credit On Economic Growth

With the deepening of supply-side structural reform,China's macro-economic regulation has gradually shifted from direct intervention to monetary policy.Credit is one of the transmission channels of monetary policy and plays an important role in national economic development.Shandong province as a major economic province,since 2000,the GDP and bank credit have maintained rapid growth,by 2017,the shandong regional GDP and bank credit expanded 8.71 times and 10.88 times respectively,both have almost the same change trend,periodic fluctuation cycle,tend to be the same,so the bank credit and economic growth in shandong,what there is relationship between them,This paper needs to make an empirical study on the relationship and impact of shandong bank credit and economic growth.Based on carding domestic and foreign important,on the basis of relevant theory and empirical research,starting from the present situation of bank credit and economic growth in shandong province,the selection of related research variables in 1990-2017 annual data,through the establishment of bank credit(LOAN),fiscal expenditure(FC),using the pinch(FI)and the shandong regional GDP between the empirical model,discusses the credit scale effects on the economic growth;Further,through the establishment of empirical models between short-term bank credit(SL)and medium-term and long-term bank credit(ML)and the shandong regional GDP,the role of bank credit term structure on economic growth is studied.The empirical results show that :(1)among the financing sources that affect the economic growth in shandong province,bank credit has the greatest impact on the economic growth,and bank credit is the main reason for the economic growth.(2)both short-term and medium-term and long-term bank credit can promote economic growth,and medium-term and long-term bank credit can promote economy more than short-term credit.(3)the response degree of current GDP growth rate of shandong province to the growth rate of bank credit from the lagging period is not obvious;(4)the positive effect of short-term bank credit on the economic growth of shandong province is rapidly manifested and gradually weakened in the short term;The positive effect of medium-term and long-term bank credit on economic growth in shandong province is lagging behind.Finally,based on the current situation of shandong province and the conclusion of empirical analysis,the paper puts forward some corresponding improvement measures,such as maintaining the stable growth of credit scale and adjusting the credit structure of Banks,so as to further promote the sustainable development of shandong economy.