Research On The Interactive Relationship Among Bank Credit, Real Estate Prices And Economic Growth In Shenzhen

From the perspective of economic theory,there is a close relationship among bank credit,real estate prices and economic growth.Bank credit is the main resource of funds for our country's real estate market and one of important tools in regulating the real estate market.Real estate industry is one of the important industries in the national economy and the people's livelihood,and it's vital to maintain economic stability and promote economic growth.The present domestic research on the three ones mainly focuses on the relationship between real estate prices and band credit in national lever.However,our country is humongous;the differences in regional resource,urbanization and economic development degree will have great influences on the local real estate market and economic development policies,especially in those cities of having obvious regional characteristics,how about the interaction relationship among the bank credit,real estate prices and economic growth,the researches in those citiesare still rare.China economy development slows down in recent years,and the pressures on industrial upgrading and structural adjustment increases obviously.Shenzhen,as the always pioneer of reform and opening-up,its development speed and quality plays an important exemplary role for the national development.For overall economic operation,Shenzhen has rapid GDP growth in recent years;meanwhile its bank credit amount grows rapidly.The data shows there is quite a lot of bank credit funds flow to real estate industry in Shenzhen area.Funds gathering in real estate market make Shenzhen real estate prices rising in recent years and the new house sales prices in 2015 increase 40%.At present,the problems of overheated investment,rising price in Shenzhen real estate market lay hidden dangers for its economic health and financial security.Based on Shenzhen's historical mission and development hiding problems,it's necessary to carry a tracking study on the interactive relationship among the bank credit,real estate prices,and economic growth in Shenzhen area.This paper works according to the thinking of the theoretical analysis-empirical analysis-suggestions.Firstly,the paper analyzed the influence mechanism of interactive relationship among the bank credit,real estate prices and economic growth from the angle of theory,which lay theoretical basis for the deep understanding of their function relation,and then preliminaryanalysis the Shenzhen actual performance and function of the three ones in recent years for the following empirical results.Secondly,the paper selected from March 2007 to December 2015 Shenzhen bank credit,real estate prices and economic growth quarter on quarter related data and the data of preliminary processing after treatment,according to the modern econometric theory establish lag period for phase 3 of the VAR model,and conduct co-integration test and Granger causality test.The co-integration test result shows in the real economy system in Shenzhen area,there is a long-term co-integration relationship among the band credit,real estate price and GDP.Real estate price changes every 1 percentage points,GDP will change 0.0519 percentage points,and there is a rather obvious positive relationship between real estate prices and GDP.The total amount of loans changes 1 percentage points,0.009 percentage points of GDP,which indicatesthe bank credit growth in Shenzhen has limited role in stimulating macroeconomic growth.Besides,Granger causality test result shows that there is a one-way Granger causality between the real estate price and the total bank loans in Shenzhen.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis results,this paper presents five corresponding policy recommendations as to Shenzhen area.