Trade Policy Uncertainty,Institutional Distance And Export Binary Bargin

Trade policy has always been an important field in the study of international trade theory.In the increasingly complex world political and economic environment.the impact of trade policy uncertainty on trade and macro-economy has attracted more and more attention,and has become an important topic of academic research.In the "anti globalization" tide represented by Britain’s "brexit" and Trump’s trade policy after being elected as the 45th president of the United States,the global political and economic environment is becoming more and more unstable,and the uncertainty of trade policy is on the rise.In this context,the attention to the uncertainty of economic policy has gradually shifted to the uncertainty of trade policy.How does the uncertainty of trade policy affect international trade?And how should a country prevent and mitigate the potential crisis caused by uncertainty?What is the impact on export trade of different countries in different institutional distance?These problems are urgent for the government and enterprises to think about.According to the logic of "literature summary-current situation analysis-Theoretical Construction-Empirical Analysis-conclusion outlook",in the mutual confirmation of theory and practice,in the interaction of trade policy uncertainty and export trade,the real picture of trade policy uncertainty and institutional distance’s influence on export dual frontier is reproduced.In the empirical analysis,we use the empirical evidence of China and its major trading partners from 2000 to 2018 to investigate the impact of China’s trade policy uncertainty on the export expansion margin and intensive margin of China’s trading partners in different institutional distance intervals.The study found that the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export countries’trade intensive margin is uncertain,and there is a significant negative impact on the expansion margin.Although the impact of trade policy uncertainty on exports is mainly realized through the expansion margin,threshold regression is carried out by setting the institutional distance as the threshold variable.This paper finds that:the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the expansion margin shows the characteristics of mechanism transformation with the change of institutional distance.In addition,the impact of institutional distance on the export expansion margin accelerates with the increase of institutional distance.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions:first,do a good job of foreign policy tracking and early warning to reduce the uncertainty of policy change time;second,do a good job of supporting export enterprises with weak competitiveness when external shocks come;third,correctly understand the role of institutional distance in international trade;fourth,actively seek free trade agreements.