Research On The Impact Of Trade Policy Uncertainty Of Export Enterprise Performance

In recent years,the impact of trade policy uncertainty(TPU)on economic development has attracted widespread attention from scholars.Increased TPU can change a company's export decisions,or delay a company's export transactions until the trade policy becomes clear.TPU will deepen the negative impact of the economic crisis and cause the global economy to fall into a vicious circle.In view of the important position of international trade in the economy,the research onTPU has become a frontier and hot issue of international trade.International trade enables countries around the world to work together on the premise of cost differences,maximizing the release of productivity and bringing benefits to consumers and producers around the world,but international trade is also a double-edged sword:on the one hand,free trade makes consumers more abundant commodities,and producers a broader market.But also make the domestic economy and the world economy more closely linked,causing the world economic fluctuations to be more easily transmitted to the domestic.During the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1998 and the mild recession in the world economy in 2000-2001,the US financial crisis in 2008 and the long-term economic downturn in the aftermath,every time the crisis came,international trade made the crisis more widespread and lasted longer.On the other hand,the cost difference between countries is not permanent.In free markets,it sells comparatively superior products to foreign countries for profit.At the same time,the country also imports foreign products with comparative advantages,while restraining the development of its weak industries,so that its economic development has lost its due possibilities.In response to the downturn in the world economy in recent years,some countries have frequently adjusted their trade policies to serve their own economic development,injecting more uncertainty into global trade policies.This has led to a series of key questions:How does the increase in TPU affect the export behavior of companies?How will the trade policy be frequently adjusted to affect the two sides of the trade?Should there be differences in TPU and whether companies with different characteristics are different?Regarding the above issues,traditional trade theory is analyzed at the national or industry level.However,a large number of facts prove that enterprises have different ability to deal with the uncertainty of trade policy through the judgment and control of uncertainty.Therefore,research at the micro-enterprise level is very important.Based on the previous studies,this paper studies the impact of TPU on the performance of export enterprises within the analytical framework of corporate heterogeneous trade theory.The main research ideas of this paper are as follows:Firstly,sort out the relevant literatures and find out the innovation points.Secondly,from the perspective of tariff transmission,the TPU is included in the game of the price of the two parties,and the uncertainty of trade policy is analyzed.The influence of traders and the role of TPU in resource redeployment;again,describes the current state of trade policies faced by Chinese exporters and the performance of Chinese exporters.Then,using the CEPII database China's export trade data from 2000-2016 to merge the WITS database tariff data,use the gravity model to verify the impact of TPU on export earnings;use the China Customs database to merge the WITS tariff database with enterprise-level data to study trade.The impact of policy uncertainty on the binary margin of corporate export growth;the impact of TPU on other performance indicators after being incorporated into the industrial enterprise database;the study of TPU affects resource redeployment through firm productivity;The conclusions and prospects of this paper.Based on the above research,this paper has the following conclusions:First,increased uncertainty in trade policies will reduce the performance of exporting firms.Through theoretical derivation and empirical research,it is shown that,on the whole,the impact of TPU on firm performance is negative.The greater the uncertainty of trade policy,the more it will have a restraining effect on the export trade of enterprises,which in turn will affect the performance of export enterprises.It can be seen from the empirical study in Chapter 4 that the impact of TPU on firm performance is mainly based on systemic TPU.Explain that the main impact on the performance of export enterprises is the uncertainty of trade policies at the macro level,usually due to special international events.The uncertainty of non-systematic TPU is small,and the impact on the performance of export enterprises is relatively weak,indicating that the differences between different enterprises are not large.Second,the impact of TPU is heterogeneous.From the literature review in the first chapter and the theoretical basis of the second chapter,it can be seen that the degree of influence of TPU on the performance of export enterprises and the export destinations,the categories of export products,the ownership of export enterprises,the scale of export enterprises,etc.There is a close connection:the higher the market share of the export destination market,the greater the uncertainty of trade policy will have less effect on export inhibition.Therefore,even if the trade policy is highly uncertain,it will not have a big impact on the market.Similarly,if the industry in which the export product is located is highly competitive and the market is completely competitive,the trade policy fluctuations cannot produce a higher price for the export destination.The big impact can only be affected by the export enterprises to absorb most of the increased tariffs,thus affecting the performance of exporting enterprises.Third,TPU will lead to resource reconfiguration.In theory,the uncertainties in trade policy that China faces affect the export choices of enterprises by affecting the expectations of iceberg costs.The market's survival of the fittest mechanism will still enable high-productivity enterprises to choose export trade,and the enterprises with the second highest productivity choose domestic and export at the same time,and the enterprises with the lowest productivity will withdraw from the market.Without considering the impact of export experience,the higher the uncertainty of trade policy faced by China,the greater the threshold for entry,which will lead some domestic enterprises that can meet export requirements to choose domestic sales,resulting in more fierce competition in domestic sales.A more serious loss.Due to the uncertainty of trade policy,only exporters with high enough productivity can overcome the obstacles brought by TPU and enter the market.Therefore,the existence of TPU affects the market's survival of the fittest,hinders the improvement of overall productivity,and causes greater harm to domestic enterprises.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper gives recommendations from the macro and micro levels.On the macro level,China should actively participate in trade agreements and strive to establish equal and mutually beneficial trade relations with more countries or regions,minimize the negative impact of TPU on international trade,and attach importance to comparative advantages;The state establishes a TPU index,regularly publishes uncertainty with trading partners,and provides macro and medium-level decision-making data for micro-enterprises.From the micro-enterprise level,Chinese export enterprises should reduce costs,develop diversification strategies,overcome trade trade uncertainty and trade distortions,and improve the ability to control TPU.In product selection,try to choose differentiation.High,complementary products to avoid trade wars.The main content of this paper consists of six parts,the specific contents are as follows:The introductory section introduces the basic overview of the article.Firstly,it introduces the background and significance of this paper.Secondly,it introduces the research ideas and contents of this paper.Then,it introduces the data source and research methods of this paper.Finally,it introduces the innovation and deficiency of this paper.The first part is the induction and review of the relevant literature.Firstly,it introduces the relevant literature on TPU and its measurement.Secondly,it summarizes the relevant literature on the impact of TPU on exports.Finally,the existing literature is reviewed.The second part is the theoretical analysis.First,through the drawing,the game of the ratio of tariff absorption in the bargaining of trade parties is analyzed.Secondly,the uncertainty of trade policy is introduced to analyze the changes in welfare caused by the uncertainty of tariffs and trade policies.Then,the TPU is introduced into Melitz's heterogeneous enterprise model,and the role of TPU in resource redistribution is studied within the framework of enterprise heterogeneity theory.The hypothesis of this paper is proposed.Finally,the content of this chapter is carried out.summary.The third part is to study the characteristics of China's TPU and corporate performance.First of all,it introduces the overall development status of China's export trade and the characteristics of foreign trade.Secondly,it focuses on the characteristics of the trade policy fluctuations faced by China's exports.Finally,it describes the performance of Chinese industrial enterprises.The fourth part is empirical research,including the fourth,fifth and sixth chapters.The fourth chapter is to study the impact of TPU on exports from the product level.Using the CEPII database China export trade data and the tariff data of the WITS database to calculate the uncertainty of systemic and non-systematic trade policies facing China,the gravity model is used to study the impact of TPU on Chinese exports from the product level.TPU at the firm level is the result of a weighted average of TPU at the product level.Therefore,studying the impact of TPU on exports at the product level lays the foundation for the subsequent study of the impact of TPU on exports at the enterprise level.The fifth chapter begins with the use of the data compiled by the China Customs Database and the WITS Tariff Database to study the impact of TPU on the binary margin of corporate income growth.At the same time,from the theoretical and empirical aspects,the buffer effect of export tax rebate policy on TPU is studied.Secondly,using the data of ChinaCustoms Database,China Industrial Enterprise Database and WITS Tariff Database to study the impact of TPU on the performance of export enterprises.The sixth chapter studies the uncertainty of trade policy by affecting the productivity of enterprises,and ultimately affects the re-allocation of enterprise resources.The last part is the conclusion and outlook of this paper.It mainly consists of three parts,firstly summarizing the analysis conclusions of the full text;secondly,proposing appropriate policy recommendations based on the research conclusions;finally,looking forward to further research directions.