The Influence Of Shadow Bank On Monetary Policy To Control House Price And Macro Economy

Since the implementation of housing reform in 1998,China's real estate industry has developed rapidly,which is increasingly critical to the steady improvement of the national economy.But at present,the rapid development of China's real estate industry is gradually divorced from the support of the real economy,and there may be a lot of bubbles.Then,in order to prevent the risk of the real estate industry from endangering the macro-economic level and the financial security of our country,the government has implemented a series of tightening policies,but the house price has not been effectively contained,and the effect of policy implementation has not reached the expectation.In fact,due to the huge amount of real estate investment and the high enthusiasm of residents for purchasing houses,the government effectively controls the loan interest rate in the formal financial market,but due to the development of informal financial institutions,that is,the development of the shadow banking system,the government is unable to effectively regulate its scale,which leads to the real estate market Real estate developers and others have obtained new financing from it.Under such a mechanism,the situation of "the failure of the tight monetary policy" appears,which leads to the weakening of the ability of the monetary policy to adjust the macro-economy by adjusting the house price.Therefore,to supervise shadow banks more effectively,to standardize and guide the development of shadow banks,to effectively stabilize house prices,and to further improve the regulatory role of monetary policy on the macro-economy,so as to make the macro-economy develop more steadily.Based on the 11 years' quarterly data of 16 listed banks in China,this paper analyzes the macro factors such as bank level data and shadow bank scale into the bfavar model,and further validates the channel of shadow bank's influence on the implementation effect of tightening monetary policy.The main conclusions:(1)the house price has the same change trend as the macro-economy(GDP),but the fluctuation range of house price is larger and the time interval is shorter;monetary policy has the ability to iron the vibration transmission from the financial cycle fluctuation caused by house price to the economic cycle fluctuation.(2)The effect of quantitative monetary policy is better than that of price monetary policy in the initial stage,but the effect of price monetary policy is longer.It is verified that the channel of shadow banking's internal capital source in commercial banks is off balance sheet interbank business,and shadow banking business appears more in joint-stock banks,which makes the price type tight monetary policy"invalid".(3)Under the tight price monetary policy,the existence of shadow bank strengthens the vibration transmission from the financial cycle fluctuation caused by the house price to the economic cycle fluctuation,weakens the ironing ability of the monetary policy to the vibration transmission from the financial cycle fluctuation to the economic cycle fluctuation;the shadow bank makes the price monetary policy adjust the house price through the interbank business channel of the commercial bank" Failure"weakens the ability of monetary policy to adjust macro-economy by adjusting house price.