Housing Price,Exchange Rate Fluctuation And National Financial Security

In the late 1990 s,China initiated the reform of the housing system,the marketization of the real estate industry has deepened,and housing price has risen rapidly.Since then,although the government has carried out multiple rounds of regulation and control,the trend of rising housing price has not slowed down,and the real estate industry has now become one of the pillar industries of the national economy.At the same time,after the "7.21" exchange rate reform in 2005,the RMB exchange rate has gradually appreciated.The trend between housing price and exchange rate is more consistent.With the development of economic and financial globalization,the transmission of financial crisis internationally is also accelerating,which has a profound impact on China's financial security.As we all know,exchange rate is one of the important indicators to measure financial security,and the fluctuation range of exchange rate will directly affect the national financial security.Therefore,this paper mainly studies the path and degree of the impact of changes in housing price on exchange rate fluctuations in the context of the growing importance of national financial security.First of all,this paper systematically sorts out the related concepts and literature of housing price,exchange rate and financial security,and then constructs a theoretical model to study the transmission path of housing price to exchange rate and their correlation.Then,this paper analyzes the price changes caused by the reform of China's housing market and the exchange rate fluctuations caused by the reform of the RMB exchange rate system,and finds that there is a correlation between the two trends.Next,this paper uses the relevant data from August 2005 to August 2019 for empirical test.Finally,based on the needs to maintain China's financial security,combined with the actual situation and empirical conclusions,this paper puts forward suggestions from four aspects: housing market,capital market,international capital flow and the RMB exchange rate system reform.The main conclusion of this paper: the theoretical analysis shows that the price change of housing market can transmit to the foreign exchange market and cause exchange rate fluctuations;the two are related,the rise of housing price in the short term will promote exchange rate appreciation,but the rise of housing price in the long term will lead to exchange rate depreciation.The empirical results show that China's housing price is the Granger cause of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations,that is,housing price can cause exchange rate fluctuations;in the short term,the rise of China's housing price will promote the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate,and in the long term,it will lead to depreciation;the contribution of changes in housing price to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate rises with time and shows significant performance.