Research On Dynamic Evolution Model Of Platform Ecosystem Based On Complex Network And Its Application In Investment Decision

With the rapid renovation of the digital economy and internet technology,traditional enterprises have begun to transformed into smart IoT ecological service platforms.And some emerging companies have become new forces to participate in market competition.Platform has gradually become an important role in the market economy,and its growth and development process has attracted the attention of all walks in the society.And exploring the dynamic evolution of the platform ecosystem and market competition strategies are of great significance to platform companies participating in market competition.However,due to the complexity and particularity of platform system,its operation and development rules are difficult to be analyzed through traditional market competition theories.How to identify the factors that affect the competition of platform companies and how to prospect for the future and make investment decisions for platform enterprises and investors in the early stage are still urgent problems to be solved.The growth of platform enterprises is similar to the evolution of biological species,which needs to adapt to the market competition environment through its own evolution,and gradually change and strengthen the original functions.For this reason,domestic and foreign scholars have studied platform enterprises from the aspects of business model,competitive strategy,evolution and diffusion,etc.,but the research objects always focus on a product or service of platform enterprises,and only focuses on the external decision-making behavior of platform subjects in the process of competition.When the research object is switched into platform ecosystem,we should creatively propose a research method that can describe the nature of system evolution.Therefore,this study is not limited to the platform itself or one of its products and services,but takes the whole platform ecosystem as the research object.In view of the development status of platform enterprises and the shortcomings of existing researches,this paper combines biological ecosystem characteristics and the development rules of two-sided platforms.And focuses on the issue dynamic evolution from a network perspective.This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the dynamic evolution of platform ecosystem,and describes the key factors that determine the dynamic evolution of platform ecosystem.Then,according to the inherent characteristics of the platform ecosystem,a complex network method is used to construct an original and widely applicable dynamic evolution model of two-sided user scale changes.Based on the dynamic evolution process,the relationship between model parameters and operating performance is explored,and the trajectory and parameter range of the two-sided user scale over time are obtained through numerical calculations.Finally,the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to predict the future operating status of the platform enterprise using dynamic evolution models,which provides valuation basis for investors to make investment decisions and help platform managers to formulate business strategies.Base on the previous research,this paper applies the platform ecosystem dynamic evolution model to the valuation and investment decision-making of the startup stage of platform enterprises.In the end,the research in this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The dynamic evolution model of the platform ecosystem based on the network perspective in this paper,which has certain originality and universality.It can analyze the overall evolution of the system and predict the future growth and evolution trajectory and operational development of enterprises,so as to provide a reliable basis for investors to make investment decisions.(2)Focus on analyzing the effects of factors such as cross-network effects,competition effects,tide and word-of-mouth effects,and the endogenous growth rate of the platform on the dynamic evolution of the platform ecosystem.And explore its mechanism of action in conjunction with operating performance,and obtain the corresponding parameter ranges and the impact of enterprise user size.(3)The growth and evolution of the platform is a longterm process.In order to maintain the long-term and healthy development of enterprises,the platform should maintain a phased advantages instead of seeking a permanent competitive advantage.