The Linkage Relationship Between The Real Effective Exchange Rate Of RMB And Housing Prices

All along,the real estate industry and the foreign exchange market have played a decisive role in China's economic development.Especially since the reform and opening up,China's export scale has increased rapidly,and the characteristics of the export-oriented economy are obvious.Import and export enterprises are greatly affected by exchange rate fluctuations.The further transmission from the real economy to the entire economy leads to changes in economic growth and world trade patterns,and may even trigger trade protection and exchange rate wars in various countries.As a pillar industry of my country's national economy,real estate has a significant impact on the upstream and downstream industry chains.Real estate,as the main pool of funds,has a significant impact on residents' wealth allocation,capital preservation and appreciation,and speculation.In the context of the policy of "no housing,no speculation",how to establish a long-term mechanism for real estate is a difficult problem that domestic policymakers and scholars have been exploring.At the same time,with the acceleration of the RMB internationalization process,in the process of gradually realizing the full opening of the financial sector,higher requirements are placed on the stability of exchange rates.How to reduce intervention and determine the exchange rate level by market supply and demand is an urgent financial problem.Since exchange rate fluctuations will affect asset prices through channels such as capital flow,money supply,and economic growth,real estate as a physical asset will also change its supply and demand relationship,and the imbalance in the real estate market will further affect the financial market through factors such as expectations and capital flow.,Without intervention,the two are likely to cause a vicious circle.Based on the monthly data of the real effective exchange rate of RMB,house prices,short-term international capital flows,M2 growth rate,and Keqiang index,this paper analyzes the difference between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and house prices through regression analysis,VAR model,and boot-rolling window causality test.The relevance of the period.In the testing of the causality of the rolling window,this paper divides the whole sample into two sub-samples of 2012-2015 and 2016-2019 for window testing.The research shows that the actual effective exchange rate of RMB has a less significant impact on housing prices than that of housing prices..House prices have positive and negative effects on the real effective exchange rate of RMB.Before 2014,house prices basically showed a positive effect on the effective exchange rate of RMB.Afterwards,there were more obvious negative effects in 2015-2019 years.The overall housing price showed a significant positive and negative impact.Although the exchange rate can affect house prices to a certain extent,it does not affect house prices to a high degree.This is mainly because domestic real estate investment has strong attributes,which is the necessary asset allocation for funds to pursue high returns,and the capital controls still implemented in China And other factors.Based on this,China should continue to implement the necessary capital control measures and prudent monetary policy based on the actual situation of domestic economic development,continue to improve the exchange rate reform mechanism,establish a long-term mechanism for the stable development of the real estate market,and unswervingly promote reform and opening up to buffer The impact of certainty factors.