Urbanization Can Benefit Agricultural Sustainability In China

Since urban expansion reduces the availability of productive croplands,urbanization has been considered a threat to food security.However,we show here that urbanization can actually have the opposite effect and increase cropland for agricultural production.This is particularly the case for such global south countries as China,with relatively few densely populated mega-urban regions.Based on spatial statistics and scenario analysis,we demonstrate that an increase in China's urbanization level from currently 56%(2015)to 90% in 2050 would release approximately 8 million hectares of land for agricultural production – equivalent to ~6% of China's total cropland area.This potential increase in cropland is driven by rural-tourban migration(urbanization)on condition that more rural built-up land areas is released for efficient crop production than consumed by urban expansion in substantially higher densely populated large conurbations.Even considering the relatively lower land fertility of these new croplands,2050 crop production would still increase by 4.2% compared with 2015.In addition,rural built-up land optimization could reduce cropland fragmentation,increase cropland unit size,and further benefit large-scale farming.To achieve such a land release,it is essential to manage integrated urban and rural development in the course of urbanization that could ensure equal access to public services and the social security system for new urban migrants;in the meantime,this could offer an effective and fair solution to reclaim the rural lands left behind.This finding provides a novel insight into the urbanization and food security debate,with crucial policy implications for China and other global regions undergoing rapid urbanization.