Impact Of Longevity Risk On The Balance Of Income And Expenditure Of Urban Employee Personal Accounts

With the improvement of medical and health conditions,living standards and people's awareness of health care,the average life expectancy of the global population has been generally prolonging,which will bring huge longevity risks to the pension scheme.However,longevity risk is one of the most easily overlooked systemic risks in the design of the endowment insurance system.This article first defines theoretically the longevity risk in personal accounts,and then uses the Lee-Carter model,the personal account calculation and distribution coefficients as the starting points.From the perspective of population life expectancy and pension adjustment,the longevity risk by which urban employee pension insurance personal accounts is currently faced is indeed measured.By constructing a personal account balance-of-payments model,the impact of various factors in longevity risk on personal account balance-of-payments was examined,and the annual gap size of China's urban employee personal accounts was estimated from 2019 to 2050.The empirical results show that,China's urban employee endowment insurance personal account contains serious longevity risks.The longevity risk for men is 62 months and that for women is 94 months.Among them,compared with the average life expectancy factor,pension adjustment factors will bring greater longevity risk to personal accounts of the endowment insurance system.It is expected that the data optimization of life expectancy and pension adjustment index will improve the state of personal accounts.In terms of the balance of personal life cycle level,the impact of longevity risk on the balance of personal accounts will increase year by year.Among them,the impact of the pension adjustment factor is greater,the average life expectancy factor has a greater impact on the male account,and the impact of the pension adjustment factor on women's accounts is even greater.For the annual balance of payments within the endowment system,the population life expectancy factor has a small impact on the balance of personal accounts,but the impact has increased year by year;the pension adjustment factor has a greater impact on the annual balance of payments within the endowment system,but the impact has declined year by year.Both factors have a greater impact on women's personal account in the balance of payments within the endowment system.