The Longevity Risk Assessment Of Individual Accounts Of Urban Employees' Basic Endowment Insurance In China

Longevity is a coveted good thing for residents,but it is not necessarily the case for the insurance industry,especially pension insurance.With the rapid improvement of living conditions,China 's average life expectancy has increased by about 5 years from 2000 to 2015,which means that there is a lag in the life table which updated every ten years,and the endowment insurance faces the risk of long life with insufficient solvency.At the same time,China's current pension system started in 2005,and the average life expectancy at that time had a large gap compared with now,especially at the level of urban employee pension personal accounts.Individual accounts under the accumulation system are more vulnerable to longevity.Therefore,this article takes the longevity risk of pension personal accounts as the research object,and explores the impact of delayed retirement on it.This article faces three issues:The first is the issue of mortality.This article collected data on mortality in some years in China by consulting statistical yearbooks and other data,and added a small amount of missing parts to the linear complement.Then,after comparing the mortality models,the Lee-Carter model and the Coala-Kisker model were selected to simulate and predict the mortality of the younger and middle-aged elderly.The study found that both the male and female mortality rates in China have decreased significantly,and the average life expectancy has continued to increase.Secondly,we discuss the longevity risk of personal accounts for urban employee pension insurance.Based on China's pension sending and receiving regulations,this paper separately models the accumulation and payment of pensions,and proposes to use the personal account gap value and longevity risk index as indicators to assess the longevity risk,the initial year of the establishment of the modern endowment insurance system in 2005 is used as the base year,and the remaining years are discounted to the base year to evaluate the longevity risk index.The results show that with the continuous improvement of the average life expectancy in China,the personal account of China's endowment insurance tends to be insolvent,and there is a risk of longevity and it is becoming increasingly serious.Finally,we research the utility of delayed retirement policies to alleviate the pressure on pension payments.Based on the current retirement age,this article delays the retirement age by ten years by gender,and considers the sensitivity of the longevity risk of individual accounts to the delayed retirement policy.The study found that when the retirement age changes,the corresponding pension accumulation period becomes longer,and the pension payment period is unchanged.The pension payment increases,resulting in delayed retirement policies that cannot effectively mitigate the longevity risk of personal pension accounts.