| With the development of social economy,the expansion of urban space and population scale,the upgrading of consumer demand,and the promotion of the development of shopping centers,it not only meets the diversified needs of consumers while minimizing the cost of shopping,but also drives the level of regional consumption,enhances the attractiveness of business circles,and promotes the hierarchical status of commercial centers.It is the most valuable large-scale commercial facility for the development of modern retailing.Under the influence of the downturn in the e-commerce and real estate industries,530 new shopping centers were added nationwide in2018,and the momentum of development remained unchanged.However,there were also problems such as unfinished shopping center projects,vacancy,disorderly development and poor returns.Therefore,in-depth study of shopping center related research is of great significance for enterprise decision-making and government to optimize urban commercial space and promote regional social and economic sustainable development.Through combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper takes Central Chongqing as an example to collect the information of 98 shopping centers that have opened up in the area by the end of 2018,such as their spatial attributes,brand names,types of business formats,customer shopping perception and evaluation,etc.Based on the data of economy,geography,population,transportation,policies,ecology and other aspects of Central Chongqing,this paper deeply summarizes and analyzes the development process of shopping centers in Central Chongqing,and uses spatial analysis and econometric analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics,retail attraction,and market development potential of shopping centers,and puts forward strategies for optimizing spatial layout.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The shopping centers in Central Chongqing are characterized by overall decentralization and some local agglomeration.From the overall spatial layout,shopping centers develop from the city center to the periphery,forming a general trend of expansion and subsidence,showing the evolution characteristics from point-like agglomeration,disorderly diffusion to orderly diffusion.From the perspective of expansion direction and degree of agglomeration,the expansion is mainly on the north-south axis and theinner ring agglomeration.From the perspective of spatial unit differentiation,there are characteristics of unbalanced development,with Yuzhong District,Yubei District,Jiangbei District,Nanan District and Jiulongpo District within the inner ring as the layout hot spots.However,with the passage of time,the imbalance degree of each spatial unit has obviously slowed down,showing a certain trend of balanced development.From the perspective of spatial agglomeration,the whole region has the evolution rule of agglomeration to diffusion and then to agglomeration.Local "high-high" and "high-low" agglomeration areas are concentrated in urban centers and sub-centers,and there is a tendency of agglomeration to peripheral areas of cities.Areas with "low-high" and "low-low" agglomeration types are widely distributed in non-urbanization areas,with prominent polarization development phenomenon.(2)The retail attraction of shopping centers in Central Chongqing has a central directional feature in space,with obvious polar core structure,and the agglomeration ability weakens from the downtown to the outside,resulting in a spatial fracture phenomenon.According to Huff's revised model,the retail attraction of shopping centers in Central Chongqing ranges from 0.5788 to 2.3259.Shopping centers with large attraction have a large commercial radiation range,which not only provide services to the resident population in the surrounding neighborhoods,but also gather residents in all districts of the main urban areas.It also drives the vitality of the surrounding commercial facilities and enhances the economies of scale.At the same time,it is located in the hinterland of Zhongliang Mountain and Tongluoshan Mountain.The inner urban center is closely connected with all parts of the main urban areas.With the improvement of urban functions,shopping flow gradually converges to the inner ring,increasing market absorption capacity and expanding the retail attraction.The commercial radiation range of shopping centers with medium gravity is limited,mainly due to their weak customer-gathering capacity,the market competitiveness to be improved,the space distance blocking the formation of shopping flow and reducing the radiation range.Shopping centers with small gravity have low market absorption capacity,mainly because the consumption needs of the surrounding residents are externally satisfied,and their geographical location is remote and their spatial connection is weak.(3)21 indexes are selected from five aspects of economic factors,policy factors,population factors,land factors and infrastructure conditions,and an evaluation index system for the market development potential of shopping centers is established.The order of market development potential of the nine districts in Chongqing's main city from large to small is: Yuzhong District > Yubei District > Jiangbei District > Jiulongpo District > Shapingba District > Banan District > Nan 'an District > Beibei District > dadukou district.It is found that there are positive development areas in Yuzhong District and Yubei District,which have strong ability to attract shopping centers for development and construction and strong potential for commercial real estate investment,but Yuzhong District and Yubei District have strong investment potential Innovative and developing areas include Jiangbei District,Jiulongpo District,Shapingba District and Banan District,which are gradually expanding and upgrading the market capacity of shopping centers.Both the market growth capacity and the basic conditions fordevelopment of shopping centers have certain advantages.Reserved and developed areas include Nan 'an District,Beibei District and dadukou district,which have low absorptive capacity for shopping centers.The main manifestations are that the market capacity of shopping centers is saturated,the basic conditions for market development and the growth capacity are poor,and the development of shopping centers needs to be rational.(4)According to the principles of policy guidance,overall coordination and characteristic development,this paper puts forward the optimization strategy for the spatial layout of shopping centers in Central Chongqings:(1)policy guidance and agglomeration development.Based on the evaluation results of the market development potential of shopping centers in various districts and with the policy orientation as the main theme,the focus is on expanding the emerging business circle area and developing the belt-shaped area east of Zhongliang Mountain and west of Tongluo Mountain.In particular,the Liangjiang New District will delimit the spatial scope,optimize the spatial framework of the "1+18" shopping center agglomeration core area,and improve the degree of shopping center spatial agglomeration.(2)overall coordination and overall development.In combination with the absorptive capacity of the regional market,shopping centers of different commercial sizes and consumption levels should be appropriately developed.The functions of commercial facilities within and between regions should complement each other.Industrial ties between regions should be strengthened,commercial service content should be improved,and industrial integration should be promoted.(3)traffic priority,full development.Shapingba District and Banan District should fully improve the construction conditions of regional infrastructure,especially the road traffic network,open up the barriers of spatial distance,and increase the market entry probability.(4)adjust measures to local conditions,reasonable development.For regions with low levels of economic development and residents' consumption,the number and scale of shopping centers should be reasonably controlled to develop at different levels.According to the demand types of major service groups in the region,more matching commodity types and brand types should be provided to match the residents in the surrounding communities,and a commercial-residential relationship with a more balanced supply and demand should be established. |
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